Validation of oil spill transport and fate modeling in Arctic ice
Reliability of oil spill modeling in Arctic waters for response planning and risk assessments depends on the accuracy of winds, currents, and ice data (cover and drift) used as input. We compared predicted transport in ice, using ice and ocean model results as input, with observed drifter trajectori...
Published in: | Arctic Science |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English French |
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Canadian Science Publishing
2018
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2017-0027 https://doaj.org/article/f1b42e142a484cce9276d395d8dffda5 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:f1b42e142a484cce9276d395d8dffda5 2023-05-15T14:22:21+02:00 Validation of oil spill transport and fate modeling in Arctic ice Deborah P. French-McCay Tayebeh Tajalli-Bakhsh Kathy Jayko Malcolm L. Spaulding Zhengkai Li 2018-03-01 https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2017-0027 https://doaj.org/article/f1b42e142a484cce9276d395d8dffda5 en fr eng fre Canadian Science Publishing doi:10.1139/as-2017-0027 2368-7460 https://doaj.org/article/f1b42e142a484cce9276d395d8dffda5 undefined Arctic Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 71-97 (2018) trajectory model ice drifter ice model arctic spill response oil weathering in ice geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2018 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2017-0027 2023-01-22T18:04:18Z Reliability of oil spill modeling in Arctic waters for response planning and risk assessments depends on the accuracy of winds, currents, and ice data (cover and drift) used as input. We compared predicted transport in ice, using ice and ocean model results as input, with observed drifter trajectories in the Beaufort Sea and an experimental oil release in the Barents Sea. The ice models varied in ice rheology algorithms used (i.e., Elastic–Viscous–Plastic, presently used in climate models, versus a new Elasto-Brittle approach in pack ice) and the time averaging of their outputs, which were provided as input to oil spill models. Evaluations of model performance (skill) against drifters showed improvement using Elasto-Brittle instead of Elastic–Viscous–Plastic rheology. However, model skill was degraded by time-averaging of ocean and ice model vectors before input to the oil spill model. While the accuracy of individual oil model trajectories projected weeks to months into the future is expected to be low, in the event of a spill, forecasts could be updated frequently with satellite and other observations to improve reliability. Comparisons of modeled trajectories with drifters verified that use of the ice–ocean models for ensemble modeling as part of risk assessments is reliable. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Barents Sea Beaufort Sea Unknown Arctic Barents Sea Arctic Science |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English French |
topic |
trajectory model ice drifter ice model arctic spill response oil weathering in ice geo envir |
spellingShingle |
trajectory model ice drifter ice model arctic spill response oil weathering in ice geo envir Deborah P. French-McCay Tayebeh Tajalli-Bakhsh Kathy Jayko Malcolm L. Spaulding Zhengkai Li Validation of oil spill transport and fate modeling in Arctic ice |
topic_facet |
trajectory model ice drifter ice model arctic spill response oil weathering in ice geo envir |
description |
Reliability of oil spill modeling in Arctic waters for response planning and risk assessments depends on the accuracy of winds, currents, and ice data (cover and drift) used as input. We compared predicted transport in ice, using ice and ocean model results as input, with observed drifter trajectories in the Beaufort Sea and an experimental oil release in the Barents Sea. The ice models varied in ice rheology algorithms used (i.e., Elastic–Viscous–Plastic, presently used in climate models, versus a new Elasto-Brittle approach in pack ice) and the time averaging of their outputs, which were provided as input to oil spill models. Evaluations of model performance (skill) against drifters showed improvement using Elasto-Brittle instead of Elastic–Viscous–Plastic rheology. However, model skill was degraded by time-averaging of ocean and ice model vectors before input to the oil spill model. While the accuracy of individual oil model trajectories projected weeks to months into the future is expected to be low, in the event of a spill, forecasts could be updated frequently with satellite and other observations to improve reliability. Comparisons of modeled trajectories with drifters verified that use of the ice–ocean models for ensemble modeling as part of risk assessments is reliable. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Deborah P. French-McCay Tayebeh Tajalli-Bakhsh Kathy Jayko Malcolm L. Spaulding Zhengkai Li |
author_facet |
Deborah P. French-McCay Tayebeh Tajalli-Bakhsh Kathy Jayko Malcolm L. Spaulding Zhengkai Li |
author_sort |
Deborah P. French-McCay |
title |
Validation of oil spill transport and fate modeling in Arctic ice |
title_short |
Validation of oil spill transport and fate modeling in Arctic ice |
title_full |
Validation of oil spill transport and fate modeling in Arctic ice |
title_fullStr |
Validation of oil spill transport and fate modeling in Arctic ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Validation of oil spill transport and fate modeling in Arctic ice |
title_sort |
validation of oil spill transport and fate modeling in arctic ice |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2017-0027 https://doaj.org/article/f1b42e142a484cce9276d395d8dffda5 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Barents Sea Beaufort Sea |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Barents Sea Beaufort Sea |
op_source |
Arctic Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 71-97 (2018) |
op_relation |
doi:10.1139/as-2017-0027 2368-7460 https://doaj.org/article/f1b42e142a484cce9276d395d8dffda5 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2017-0027 |
container_title |
Arctic Science |
_version_ |
1766294966112354304 |