Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC
To assess the skill of seasonal to inter-annual predictions of the detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead tim...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/675/2018/tc-12-675-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/eeb67b5feb384863970fd3282f62f07e |
id |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:eeb67b5feb384863970fd3282f62f07e |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:eeb67b5feb384863970fd3282f62f07e 2023-05-15T14:57:13+02:00 Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC J. Ono H. Tatebe Y. Komuro M. I. Nodzu M. Ishii 2018-02-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/675/2018/tc-12-675-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/eeb67b5feb384863970fd3282f62f07e en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/675/2018/tc-12-675-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/eeb67b5feb384863970fd3282f62f07e undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 675-683 (2018) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2018 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 2023-01-22T19:34:09Z To assess the skill of seasonal to inter-annual predictions of the detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times up to three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialised with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIEAO can be predicted up to 11 months ahead (anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.42). This skill might be attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. A plausible mechanism is as follows: the subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIEAO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to two months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas initialised in July, as suggested by previous studies. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Chukchi North Atlantic Sea ice The Cryosphere Unknown Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea The Cryosphere 12 2 675 683 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
envir geo |
spellingShingle |
envir geo J. Ono H. Tatebe Y. Komuro M. I. Nodzu M. Ishii Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC |
topic_facet |
envir geo |
description |
To assess the skill of seasonal to inter-annual predictions of the detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times up to three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialised with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIEAO can be predicted up to 11 months ahead (anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.42). This skill might be attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. A plausible mechanism is as follows: the subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIEAO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to two months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas initialised in July, as suggested by previous studies. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. Ono H. Tatebe Y. Komuro M. I. Nodzu M. Ishii |
author_facet |
J. Ono H. Tatebe Y. Komuro M. I. Nodzu M. Ishii |
author_sort |
J. Ono |
title |
Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC |
title_short |
Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC |
title_full |
Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC |
title_fullStr |
Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC |
title_full_unstemmed |
Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC |
title_sort |
mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the arctic ocean in miroc |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/675/2018/tc-12-675-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/eeb67b5feb384863970fd3282f62f07e |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Chukchi North Atlantic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Chukchi North Atlantic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 675-683 (2018) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/675/2018/tc-12-675-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/eeb67b5feb384863970fd3282f62f07e |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
675 |
op_container_end_page |
683 |
_version_ |
1766329302584918016 |