The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model
Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams are the major reasons for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica an...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:e2dda2262cba407181b779255cf9421d 2023-05-15T13:36:22+02:00 The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model R. Reese A. Levermann T. Albrecht H. Seroussi R. Winkelmann 2020-09-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3097/2020/tc-14-3097-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/e2dda2262cba407181b779255cf9421d en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3097/2020/tc-14-3097-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/e2dda2262cba407181b779255cf9421d undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 3097-3110 (2020) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2020 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020 2023-01-22T19:33:25Z Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams are the major reasons for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and are expected to become more important in the future. Here we show that for projections of future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it is essential (1) to better constrain the sensitivity of sub-shelf melt rates to ocean warming and (2) to include the historic trajectory of the ice sheet. In particular, we find that while the ice sheet response in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model is comparable to the median response of models in three Antarctic Ice Sheet Intercomparison projects – initMIP, LARMIP-2 and ISMIP6 – conducted with a range of ice sheet models, the projected 21st century sea level contribution differs significantly depending on these two factors. For the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, this leads to projected ice loss ranging from 1.4 to 4.0 cm of sea level equivalent in simulations in which ISMIP6 ocean forcing drives the PICO ocean box model where parameter tuning leads to a comparably low sub-shelf melt sensitivity and in which no surface forcing is applied. This is opposed to a likely range of 9.1 to 35.8 cm using the exact same initial setup, but emulated from the LARMIP-2 experiments with a higher melt sensitivity, even though both projects use forcing from climate models and melt rates are calibrated with previous oceanographic studies. Furthermore, using two initial states, one with a previous historic simulation from 1850 to 2014 and one starting from a steady state, we show that while differences between the ice sheet configurations in 2015 seem marginal at first sight, the historic simulation increases the susceptibility of the ice sheet to ocean warming, thereby increasing mass loss from 2015 to 2100 by 5 % to 50 %. Hindcasting past ice sheet changes with numerical models ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Unknown Antarctic The Antarctic The Cryosphere 14 9 3097 3110 |
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geo envir R. Reese A. Levermann T. Albrecht H. Seroussi R. Winkelmann The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams are the major reasons for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and are expected to become more important in the future. Here we show that for projections of future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it is essential (1) to better constrain the sensitivity of sub-shelf melt rates to ocean warming and (2) to include the historic trajectory of the ice sheet. In particular, we find that while the ice sheet response in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model is comparable to the median response of models in three Antarctic Ice Sheet Intercomparison projects – initMIP, LARMIP-2 and ISMIP6 – conducted with a range of ice sheet models, the projected 21st century sea level contribution differs significantly depending on these two factors. For the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, this leads to projected ice loss ranging from 1.4 to 4.0 cm of sea level equivalent in simulations in which ISMIP6 ocean forcing drives the PICO ocean box model where parameter tuning leads to a comparably low sub-shelf melt sensitivity and in which no surface forcing is applied. This is opposed to a likely range of 9.1 to 35.8 cm using the exact same initial setup, but emulated from the LARMIP-2 experiments with a higher melt sensitivity, even though both projects use forcing from climate models and melt rates are calibrated with previous oceanographic studies. Furthermore, using two initial states, one with a previous historic simulation from 1850 to 2014 and one starting from a steady state, we show that while differences between the ice sheet configurations in 2015 seem marginal at first sight, the historic simulation increases the susceptibility of the ice sheet to ocean warming, thereby increasing mass loss from 2015 to 2100 by 5 % to 50 %. Hindcasting past ice sheet changes with numerical models ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
R. Reese A. Levermann T. Albrecht H. Seroussi R. Winkelmann |
author_facet |
R. Reese A. Levermann T. Albrecht H. Seroussi R. Winkelmann |
author_sort |
R. Reese |
title |
The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model |
title_short |
The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model |
title_full |
The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model |
title_fullStr |
The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model |
title_sort |
role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from antarctica with the parallel ice sheet model |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3097/2020/tc-14-3097-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/e2dda2262cba407181b779255cf9421d |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 3097-3110 (2020) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3097/2020/tc-14-3097-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/e2dda2262cba407181b779255cf9421d |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
3097 |
op_container_end_page |
3110 |
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1766077621648490496 |