Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic
The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives on the changes in sea ice and navigability are crucial to the circulation pattern and future of the Arctic. In this inv...
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Copernicus Publications
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:dba71c91d6dc4ccc879d53b0a55e8582 2023-05-15T14:48:19+02:00 Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic J. Chen S. Kang W. Du J. Guo M. Xu Y. Zhang X. Zhong W. Zhang 2021-12-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5473/2021/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/dba71c91d6dc4ccc879d53b0a55e8582 en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5473/2021/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/dba71c91d6dc4ccc879d53b0a55e8582 undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 5473-5482 (2021) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2021 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021 2023-01-22T18:11:00Z The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives on the changes in sea ice and navigability are crucial to the circulation pattern and future of the Arctic. In this investigation, the decadal changes in sea ice parameters were evaluated by the multi-model from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, and Arctic navigability was assessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation accessibility model. The sea ice extent shows a high possibility of decreasing along SSP5-8.5 under current emissions and climate change. The decadal rate of decreasing sea ice extent will increase in March but decrease in September until 2060, when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and the sea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point. Sea ice thickness is expected to decrease and transit in certain parts, declining by −0.22 m per decade after September 2060. Both the sea ice concentration and volume will thoroughly decline at decreasing decadal rates, with a greater decrease in volume in March than in September. Open water ships will be able to cross the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage between August and October during the period from 2045 to 2055, with a maximum navigable percentage in September. The time for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships will shift to October–December during the period from 2021 to 2030, with a maximum navigable percentage in October. In addition, the central passage will be open for PC6 ships between September and October during 2021–2030. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming Northern Sea Route Northwest passage Sea ice The Cryosphere Unknown Arctic Northwest Passage The Cryosphere 15 12 5473 5482 |
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geo envir J. Chen S. Kang W. Du J. Guo M. Xu Y. Zhang X. Zhong W. Zhang Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic |
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geo envir |
description |
The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives on the changes in sea ice and navigability are crucial to the circulation pattern and future of the Arctic. In this investigation, the decadal changes in sea ice parameters were evaluated by the multi-model from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, and Arctic navigability was assessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation accessibility model. The sea ice extent shows a high possibility of decreasing along SSP5-8.5 under current emissions and climate change. The decadal rate of decreasing sea ice extent will increase in March but decrease in September until 2060, when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and the sea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point. Sea ice thickness is expected to decrease and transit in certain parts, declining by −0.22 m per decade after September 2060. Both the sea ice concentration and volume will thoroughly decline at decreasing decadal rates, with a greater decrease in volume in March than in September. Open water ships will be able to cross the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage between August and October during the period from 2045 to 2055, with a maximum navigable percentage in September. The time for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships will shift to October–December during the period from 2021 to 2030, with a maximum navigable percentage in October. In addition, the central passage will be open for PC6 ships between September and October during 2021–2030. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. Chen S. Kang W. Du J. Guo M. Xu Y. Zhang X. Zhong W. Zhang |
author_facet |
J. Chen S. Kang W. Du J. Guo M. Xu Y. Zhang X. Zhong W. Zhang |
author_sort |
J. Chen |
title |
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic |
title_short |
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic |
title_full |
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic |
title_sort |
perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the arctic |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5473/2021/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/dba71c91d6dc4ccc879d53b0a55e8582 |
geographic |
Arctic Northwest Passage |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Northwest Passage |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Northern Sea Route Northwest passage Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Northern Sea Route Northwest passage Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 5473-5482 (2021) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5473/2021/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/dba71c91d6dc4ccc879d53b0a55e8582 |
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undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
5473 |
op_container_end_page |
5482 |
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1766319403186520064 |