A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences
The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of...
Published in: | Climate of the Past |
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Copernicus Publications
2021
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/37/2021/cp-17-37-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/d7499832168d4b0a99d9cba763703a7c |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:d7499832168d4b0a99d9cba763703a7c 2023-05-15T13:11:31+02:00 A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences M. Kageyama L. C. Sime M. Sicard M.-V. Guarino A. de Vernal R. Stein D. Schroeder I. Malmierca-Vallet A. Abe-Ouchi C. Bitz P. Braconnot E. C. Brady J. Cao M. A. Chamberlain D. Feltham C. Guo A. N. LeGrande G. Lohmann K. J. Meissner L. Menviel P. Morozova K. H. Nisancioglu B. L. Otto-Bliesner R. O'ishi S. Ramos Buarque D. Salas y Melia S. Sherriff-Tadano J. Stroeve X. Shi B. Sun R. A. Tomas E. Volodin N. K. H. Yeung Q. Zhang Z. Zhang W. Zheng T. Ziehn 2021-01-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/37/2021/cp-17-37-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/d7499832168d4b0a99d9cba763703a7c en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/37/2021/cp-17-37-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/d7499832168d4b0a99d9cba763703a7c undefined Climate of the Past, Vol 17, Pp 37-62 (2021) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2021 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 2023-01-22T17:53:11Z The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106 km2, compared to 6.46×106 km2 for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×106 km2 for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud ... Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice Unknown Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Climate of the Past 17 1 37 62 |
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op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
geo envir |
spellingShingle |
geo envir M. Kageyama L. C. Sime M. Sicard M.-V. Guarino A. de Vernal R. Stein D. Schroeder I. Malmierca-Vallet A. Abe-Ouchi C. Bitz P. Braconnot E. C. Brady J. Cao M. A. Chamberlain D. Feltham C. Guo A. N. LeGrande G. Lohmann K. J. Meissner L. Menviel P. Morozova K. H. Nisancioglu B. L. Otto-Bliesner R. O'ishi S. Ramos Buarque D. Salas y Melia S. Sherriff-Tadano J. Stroeve X. Shi B. Sun R. A. Tomas E. Volodin N. K. H. Yeung Q. Zhang Z. Zhang W. Zheng T. Ziehn A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106 km2, compared to 6.46×106 km2 for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×106 km2 for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. Kageyama L. C. Sime M. Sicard M.-V. Guarino A. de Vernal R. Stein D. Schroeder I. Malmierca-Vallet A. Abe-Ouchi C. Bitz P. Braconnot E. C. Brady J. Cao M. A. Chamberlain D. Feltham C. Guo A. N. LeGrande G. Lohmann K. J. Meissner L. Menviel P. Morozova K. H. Nisancioglu B. L. Otto-Bliesner R. O'ishi S. Ramos Buarque D. Salas y Melia S. Sherriff-Tadano J. Stroeve X. Shi B. Sun R. A. Tomas E. Volodin N. K. H. Yeung Q. Zhang Z. Zhang W. Zheng T. Ziehn |
author_facet |
M. Kageyama L. C. Sime M. Sicard M.-V. Guarino A. de Vernal R. Stein D. Schroeder I. Malmierca-Vallet A. Abe-Ouchi C. Bitz P. Braconnot E. C. Brady J. Cao M. A. Chamberlain D. Feltham C. Guo A. N. LeGrande G. Lohmann K. J. Meissner L. Menviel P. Morozova K. H. Nisancioglu B. L. Otto-Bliesner R. O'ishi S. Ramos Buarque D. Salas y Melia S. Sherriff-Tadano J. Stroeve X. Shi B. Sun R. A. Tomas E. Volodin N. K. H. Yeung Q. Zhang Z. Zhang W. Zheng T. Ziehn |
author_sort |
M. Kageyama |
title |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_short |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_full |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_fullStr |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_full_unstemmed |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_sort |
multi-model cmip6-pmip4 study of arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/37/2021/cp-17-37-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/d7499832168d4b0a99d9cba763703a7c |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 17, Pp 37-62 (2021) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/37/2021/cp-17-37-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/d7499832168d4b0a99d9cba763703a7c |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
37 |
op_container_end_page |
62 |
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