Development of a methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong Kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and ionospheric predictive signs
In this paper, an attempt is made to combine seismological and ionospheric predictive signs formed on the eve of earthquakes in order to develop a methodology for assessing the region and the time period of waiting for strong Kamchatka earthquakes with energy class KS ≥ 13:5 (M ≥ 6:0). The seismolog...
Published in: | E3S Web of Conferences |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English French |
Published: |
EDP Sciences
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201912703002 https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2019/53/e3sconf_strpep2019_03002.pdf https://doaj.org/article/d69f6ac5bb864117a461cc2595f9e368 |
id |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:d69f6ac5bb864117a461cc2595f9e368 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:d69f6ac5bb864117a461cc2595f9e368 2023-05-15T16:58:37+02:00 Development of a methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong Kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and ionospheric predictive signs Bogdanov Vadim Pavlov Aleksey 2019-01-01 https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201912703002 https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2019/53/e3sconf_strpep2019_03002.pdf https://doaj.org/article/d69f6ac5bb864117a461cc2595f9e368 en fr eng fre EDP Sciences 2267-1242 doi:10.1051/e3sconf/201912703002 https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2019/53/e3sconf_strpep2019_03002.pdf https://doaj.org/article/d69f6ac5bb864117a461cc2595f9e368 undefined E3S Web of Conferences, Vol 127, p 03002 (2019) geo manag Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2019 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201912703002 2023-01-22T17:32:44Z In this paper, an attempt is made to combine seismological and ionospheric predictive signs formed on the eve of earthquakes in order to develop a methodology for assessing the region and the time period of waiting for strong Kamchatka earthquakes with energy class KS ≥ 13:5 (M ≥ 6:0). The seismological parameter determined on the basis of the probabilistic model of the seismicity of Kamchatka region and allowing to estimate the region and the probability of occurrence of a strong earthquake in it is proposed as a mediumterm precursor. The complex of ionospheric disturbances is considered as a short-term precursor with a waiting period of up to 5 days for earthquakes. The estimation of their prognostic efficiency for the considered precursors is carried out by methods A. A. Gusev and G. M. Molchan, and their joint analysis was performed on the eve of earthquakes with KS ≥ 13:5 (M ≥ 6:0), that occurred in the period 2009–2018. Article in Journal/Newspaper Kamchatka Unknown Gusev ENVELOPE(43.341,43.341,66.102,66.102) E3S Web of Conferences 127 03002 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English French |
topic |
geo manag |
spellingShingle |
geo manag Bogdanov Vadim Pavlov Aleksey Development of a methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong Kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and ionospheric predictive signs |
topic_facet |
geo manag |
description |
In this paper, an attempt is made to combine seismological and ionospheric predictive signs formed on the eve of earthquakes in order to develop a methodology for assessing the region and the time period of waiting for strong Kamchatka earthquakes with energy class KS ≥ 13:5 (M ≥ 6:0). The seismological parameter determined on the basis of the probabilistic model of the seismicity of Kamchatka region and allowing to estimate the region and the probability of occurrence of a strong earthquake in it is proposed as a mediumterm precursor. The complex of ionospheric disturbances is considered as a short-term precursor with a waiting period of up to 5 days for earthquakes. The estimation of their prognostic efficiency for the considered precursors is carried out by methods A. A. Gusev and G. M. Molchan, and their joint analysis was performed on the eve of earthquakes with KS ≥ 13:5 (M ≥ 6:0), that occurred in the period 2009–2018. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bogdanov Vadim Pavlov Aleksey |
author_facet |
Bogdanov Vadim Pavlov Aleksey |
author_sort |
Bogdanov Vadim |
title |
Development of a methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong Kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and ionospheric predictive signs |
title_short |
Development of a methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong Kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and ionospheric predictive signs |
title_full |
Development of a methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong Kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and ionospheric predictive signs |
title_fullStr |
Development of a methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong Kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and ionospheric predictive signs |
title_full_unstemmed |
Development of a methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong Kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and ionospheric predictive signs |
title_sort |
development of a methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and ionospheric predictive signs |
publisher |
EDP Sciences |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201912703002 https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2019/53/e3sconf_strpep2019_03002.pdf https://doaj.org/article/d69f6ac5bb864117a461cc2595f9e368 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(43.341,43.341,66.102,66.102) |
geographic |
Gusev |
geographic_facet |
Gusev |
genre |
Kamchatka |
genre_facet |
Kamchatka |
op_source |
E3S Web of Conferences, Vol 127, p 03002 (2019) |
op_relation |
2267-1242 doi:10.1051/e3sconf/201912703002 https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2019/53/e3sconf_strpep2019_03002.pdf https://doaj.org/article/d69f6ac5bb864117a461cc2595f9e368 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201912703002 |
container_title |
E3S Web of Conferences |
container_volume |
127 |
container_start_page |
03002 |
_version_ |
1766050673883873280 |