Development of a methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong Kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and ionospheric predictive signs

• Published in: E3S Web of Conferences
• Main Authors: Bogdanov Vadim, Pavlov Aleksey
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English; French
• Published: EDP Sciences 2019
• Subjects: geo; manag; Gusev; Kamchatka
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201912703002; https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2019/53/e3sconf_strpep2019_03002.pdf; https://doaj.org/article/d69f6ac5bb864117a461cc2595f9e368

In this paper, an attempt is made to combine seismological and ionospheric predictive signs formed on the eve of earthquakes in order to develop a methodology for assessing the region and the time period of waiting for strong Kamchatka earthquakes with energy class KS ≥ 13:5 (M ≥ 6:0). The seismological parameter determined on the basis of the probabilistic model of the seismicity of Kamchatka region and allowing to estimate the region and the probability of occurrence of a strong earthquake in it is proposed as a mediumterm precursor. The complex of ionospheric disturbances is considered as a short-term precursor with a waiting period of up to 5 days for earthquakes. The estimation of their prognostic efficiency for the considered precursors is carried out by methods A. A. Gusev and G. M. Molchan, and their joint analysis was performed on the eve of earthquakes with KS ≥ 13:5 (M ≥ 6:0), that occurred in the period 2009–2018.