Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing
Under climate change thawing permafrost will cause old carbon which is currently frozen and inert to become vulnerable to decomposition and release into the climate system. This paper develops a simple framework for estimating the impact of this permafrost carbon release on the global mean temperatu...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:cf439d39c0794f2fbc11a787ef1836cc 2023-05-15T17:57:12+02:00 Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing E. J. Burke I. P. Hartley C. D. Jones 2012-09-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1063-2012 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1063/2012/tc-6-1063-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/article/cf439d39c0794f2fbc11a787ef1836cc en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-6-1063-2012 1994-0416 1994-0424 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1063/2012/tc-6-1063-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/article/cf439d39c0794f2fbc11a787ef1836cc undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 6, Iss 5, Pp 1063-1076 (2012) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2012 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1063-2012 2023-01-22T19:11:27Z Under climate change thawing permafrost will cause old carbon which is currently frozen and inert to become vulnerable to decomposition and release into the climate system. This paper develops a simple framework for estimating the impact of this permafrost carbon release on the global mean temperature (P-GMT). The analysis is based on simulations made with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadGEM2-ES) for a range of representative CO2 concentration pathways. Results using the high concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) suggest that by 2100 the annual methane (CH4) emission rate is 2–59 Tg CH4 yr−1 and 50–270 Pg C has been released as CO2 with an associated P-GMT of 0.08–0.36 °C (all 5th–95th percentile ranges). P-GMT is considerably lower – between 0.02 and 0.11 °C – for the low concentration pathway (RCP2.6). The uncertainty in climate model scenario causes about 50% of the spread in P-GMT by the end of the 21st century. The distribution of soil carbon, in particular how it varies with depth, contributes to about half of the remaining spread, with quality of soil carbon and decomposition processes contributing a further quarter each. These latter uncertainties could be reduced through additional observations. Over the next 20–30 yr, whilst scenario uncertainty is small, improving our knowledge of the quality of soil carbon will contribute significantly to reducing the spread in the, albeit relatively small, P-GMT. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost The Cryosphere Unknown The Cryosphere 6 5 1063 1076 |
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envir geo E. J. Burke I. P. Hartley C. D. Jones Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing |
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envir geo |
description |
Under climate change thawing permafrost will cause old carbon which is currently frozen and inert to become vulnerable to decomposition and release into the climate system. This paper develops a simple framework for estimating the impact of this permafrost carbon release on the global mean temperature (P-GMT). The analysis is based on simulations made with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadGEM2-ES) for a range of representative CO2 concentration pathways. Results using the high concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) suggest that by 2100 the annual methane (CH4) emission rate is 2–59 Tg CH4 yr−1 and 50–270 Pg C has been released as CO2 with an associated P-GMT of 0.08–0.36 °C (all 5th–95th percentile ranges). P-GMT is considerably lower – between 0.02 and 0.11 °C – for the low concentration pathway (RCP2.6). The uncertainty in climate model scenario causes about 50% of the spread in P-GMT by the end of the 21st century. The distribution of soil carbon, in particular how it varies with depth, contributes to about half of the remaining spread, with quality of soil carbon and decomposition processes contributing a further quarter each. These latter uncertainties could be reduced through additional observations. Over the next 20–30 yr, whilst scenario uncertainty is small, improving our knowledge of the quality of soil carbon will contribute significantly to reducing the spread in the, albeit relatively small, P-GMT. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. J. Burke I. P. Hartley C. D. Jones |
author_facet |
E. J. Burke I. P. Hartley C. D. Jones |
author_sort |
E. J. Burke |
title |
Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing |
title_short |
Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing |
title_full |
Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing |
title_sort |
uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1063-2012 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1063/2012/tc-6-1063-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/article/cf439d39c0794f2fbc11a787ef1836cc |
genre |
permafrost The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
permafrost The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 6, Iss 5, Pp 1063-1076 (2012) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-6-1063-2012 1994-0416 1994-0424 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1063/2012/tc-6-1063-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/article/cf439d39c0794f2fbc11a787ef1836cc |
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undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1063-2012 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1063 |
op_container_end_page |
1076 |
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