Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5
We have performed a future projection of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model forced by MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2015
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-945-2015 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/945/2015/tc-9-945-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/c7ee9f72617142639da3b54f15c3840f |
id |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:c7ee9f72617142639da3b54f15c3840f |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:c7ee9f72617142639da3b54f15c3840f 2023-05-15T18:18:31+02:00 Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5 C. Lang X. Fettweis M. Erpicum 2015-05-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-945-2015 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/945/2015/tc-9-945-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/c7ee9f72617142639da3b54f15c3840f en eng Copernicus Publications 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-9-945-2015 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/945/2015/tc-9-945-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/c7ee9f72617142639da3b54f15c3840f undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 9, Iss 3, Pp 945-956 (2015) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2015 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-945-2015 2023-01-22T19:22:57Z We have performed a future projection of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model forced by MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo–melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to a cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a stronger winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. By 2085, SMB is projected to become negative over all of Svalbard's glaciated regions, leading to the rapid degradation of the firn layer. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Svalbard The Cryosphere Unknown Svalbard The Cryosphere 9 3 945 956 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
geo envir |
spellingShingle |
geo envir C. Lang X. Fettweis M. Erpicum Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5 |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
We have performed a future projection of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model forced by MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo–melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to a cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a stronger winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. By 2085, SMB is projected to become negative over all of Svalbard's glaciated regions, leading to the rapid degradation of the firn layer. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
C. Lang X. Fettweis M. Erpicum |
author_facet |
C. Lang X. Fettweis M. Erpicum |
author_sort |
C. Lang |
title |
Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5 |
title_short |
Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5 |
title_full |
Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5 |
title_fullStr |
Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5 |
title_sort |
future climate and surface mass balance of svalbard glaciers in an rcp8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model mar forced by miroc5 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-945-2015 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/945/2015/tc-9-945-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/c7ee9f72617142639da3b54f15c3840f |
geographic |
Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Svalbard |
genre |
Sea ice Svalbard The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Sea ice Svalbard The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 9, Iss 3, Pp 945-956 (2015) |
op_relation |
1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-9-945-2015 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/945/2015/tc-9-945-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/c7ee9f72617142639da3b54f15c3840f |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-945-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
945 |
op_container_end_page |
956 |
_version_ |
1766195115642060800 |