Arctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern dominated-modulation of fire danger and wildfire occurrence
Abstract Based on statistical analyses and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) induced climate anomalies in the 2001–2020 interval, it has been found that these climate modes drastically influence the fire danger (PFIv2) in differing ways across coastal and inland re...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:c4575f11ae9c4199997b484702fe2b7d 2023-05-15T15:00:43+02:00 Arctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern dominated-modulation of fire danger and wildfire occurrence Flavio Justino David H. Bromwich Vanucia Schumacher Alex daSilva Sheng-Hung Wang 2022-06-01 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00274-2 https://doaj.org/article/c4575f11ae9c4199997b484702fe2b7d en eng Nature Portfolio doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00274-2 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/c4575f11ae9c4199997b484702fe2b7d undefined npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 5, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2022) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2022 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00274-2 2023-01-22T17:58:17Z Abstract Based on statistical analyses and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) induced climate anomalies in the 2001–2020 interval, it has been found that these climate modes drastically influence the fire danger (PFIv2) in differing ways across coastal and inland regions. The AO induces higher fire risk in northern Eurasia and central North America, whereas the PNA increases the fire danger across southern Asia and western North America. Moreover, fires have been predominantly identified, up to 70%, during the positive phases of AO and PNA northward of 50°N, in particular over Alaska, Baltic States and eastern Asia. For coincident positive AO and negative PNA days, a large number of fires have been identified over northwestern North America and northern Eurasia. Spectral analyses demonstrate that weather anomalies related to AO and PNA lead fire danger by 10–20 days, and both modes are significantly correlated to PFIv2 over north America and most of Eurasia. Despite some drawbacks related to the fire danger methods currently applied (PFI and FWI), it is demonstrated that the influence of AO and PNA on potential environmental driven-fires can be anticipated, in some locations on almost 90% of days. Fire danger forecasts are urgently needed and the understanding of factors and conditions, which are able to modify the environmental susceptibility to fire development, are crucial for adequate management to reduce the harmful effects of fire. In this sense, our results reveal that a better prediction of the fire season can be achieved by advanced assessment of the PNA and AO behavior, and shed light on the need to investigate the impact of other modes of climate variability upon wildfire frequency and severity. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Alaska Unknown Arctic Pacific npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 5 1 |
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envir geo |
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envir geo Flavio Justino David H. Bromwich Vanucia Schumacher Alex daSilva Sheng-Hung Wang Arctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern dominated-modulation of fire danger and wildfire occurrence |
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description |
Abstract Based on statistical analyses and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) induced climate anomalies in the 2001–2020 interval, it has been found that these climate modes drastically influence the fire danger (PFIv2) in differing ways across coastal and inland regions. The AO induces higher fire risk in northern Eurasia and central North America, whereas the PNA increases the fire danger across southern Asia and western North America. Moreover, fires have been predominantly identified, up to 70%, during the positive phases of AO and PNA northward of 50°N, in particular over Alaska, Baltic States and eastern Asia. For coincident positive AO and negative PNA days, a large number of fires have been identified over northwestern North America and northern Eurasia. Spectral analyses demonstrate that weather anomalies related to AO and PNA lead fire danger by 10–20 days, and both modes are significantly correlated to PFIv2 over north America and most of Eurasia. Despite some drawbacks related to the fire danger methods currently applied (PFI and FWI), it is demonstrated that the influence of AO and PNA on potential environmental driven-fires can be anticipated, in some locations on almost 90% of days. Fire danger forecasts are urgently needed and the understanding of factors and conditions, which are able to modify the environmental susceptibility to fire development, are crucial for adequate management to reduce the harmful effects of fire. In this sense, our results reveal that a better prediction of the fire season can be achieved by advanced assessment of the PNA and AO behavior, and shed light on the need to investigate the impact of other modes of climate variability upon wildfire frequency and severity. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Flavio Justino David H. Bromwich Vanucia Schumacher Alex daSilva Sheng-Hung Wang |
author_facet |
Flavio Justino David H. Bromwich Vanucia Schumacher Alex daSilva Sheng-Hung Wang |
author_sort |
Flavio Justino |
title |
Arctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern dominated-modulation of fire danger and wildfire occurrence |
title_short |
Arctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern dominated-modulation of fire danger and wildfire occurrence |
title_full |
Arctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern dominated-modulation of fire danger and wildfire occurrence |
title_fullStr |
Arctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern dominated-modulation of fire danger and wildfire occurrence |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern dominated-modulation of fire danger and wildfire occurrence |
title_sort |
arctic oscillation and pacific-north american pattern dominated-modulation of fire danger and wildfire occurrence |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00274-2 https://doaj.org/article/c4575f11ae9c4199997b484702fe2b7d |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Alaska |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 5, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2022) |
op_relation |
doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00274-2 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/c4575f11ae9c4199997b484702fe2b7d |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00274-2 |
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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
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