Analysis of the efficiency of earthquake prediction based on the anomalous behavior of ionospheric parameters on the eve of earthquakes in the Kamchatka region

• Published in: E3S Web of Conferences
• Main Authors: Bogdanov Vadim, Pavlov Aleksey
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English; French
• Published: EDP Sciences 2018
• Subjects: envir; geo; Gusev; Kamchatka
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20186203001; https://doaj.org/article/c3a5b15d831348e79ee68f8f0a4b79ba

A method is presented for short-term prediction of strong earthquakes, in which the precursors are considered the excess of current values of foF2 critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer over the median values in periods of perturbed state of the magnetosphere, the appearance of ionospheric disturbances: K-layer, Es-spread F-spread, the stratification of the F2 layer, Es is the r type. As predicted earthquakes were considered earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 5:0. Assessment of the effectiveness of the forecast was carried out in the spring and autumn periods for 2013–2017 according to the methods of A. A. Gusev and G. M. Molchan. It is shown that the method under consideration has the best prognostic efficiency for seismic events with M ≥ 6:5 magnitude.