Analysis of Forecasting Documents for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Arctic
The tasks of forecasting the development of Russian territories, in particular the territory of the Arctic, are the most problematic due to the urgent need of the economy and management for a reliable forecast, the uncertainty of the near future caused by the turbulence of geopolitics, and the ongoi...
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Northern Arctic Federal University
2022
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.37482/issn2221-2698.2022.48.57 https://doaj.org/article/c37aad08aba4485aa5f5529f91716d6f |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:c37aad08aba4485aa5f5529f91716d6f 2023-05-15T14:43:18+02:00 Analysis of Forecasting Documents for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Arctic Tatiana P. Skufina Sergey V. Baranov Vera P. Samarina 2022-09-01 https://doi.org/10.37482/issn2221-2698.2022.48.57 https://doaj.org/article/c37aad08aba4485aa5f5529f91716d6f en ru eng rus Northern Arctic Federal University doi:10.37482/issn2221-2698.2022.48.57 2221-2698 https://doaj.org/article/c37aad08aba4485aa5f5529f91716d6f undefined Арктика и Север, Vol 48, Iss 48, Pp 49-63 (2022) russian arctic forecast social and economic development covid-19 pandemic special operation in ukraine hist demo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2022 fttriple https://doi.org/10.37482/issn2221-2698.2022.48.57 2023-01-22T18:04:02Z The tasks of forecasting the development of Russian territories, in particular the territory of the Arctic, are the most problematic due to the urgent need of the economy and management for a reliable forecast, the uncertainty of the near future caused by the turbulence of geopolitics, and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic processes, which are also not fully measurable. The purpose of the article is to present the initial grounds and forecast of the socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Arctic with a lead time up to 2023. The methodological peculiarity of the research is to take into account geopolitical, national, regional, industrial factors and development trends on the basis of using: 1) the analysis results of real and perspective global trends recorded in statistical indicators, forecast documents of the IMF, WTO, Central Bank, Ministry of Economic Development of Russia; 2) generalizations, comparisons of official forecasts and development plans of the AZRF adopted at the federal, regional levels, as well as forecasts, plans of corporations operating in the AZRF; 3) analysis of real statistical data using the author's econometric models. Given the considerable amount of analytical information received, the aspects and factors that have a key influence on the prospects of socio-economic development of the Arctic are outlined and classified according to the following levels: global, national, regional. Forecasts are made for the regions entirely located in the Arctic zone — Yamalo-Nenets, Nenets and Chukotka Autonomous okrugs, the Murmansk Oblast with an anticipation period up to 20212023. The importance of scientific forecasting in modern conditions is emphasized, encouraging reflection, new hypotheses, discussions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Chukotka Murmansk Oblast nenets Yamalo Nenets Unknown Arctic Murmansk Arctic and North 48 57 74 |
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English Russian |
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russian arctic forecast social and economic development covid-19 pandemic special operation in ukraine hist demo |
spellingShingle |
russian arctic forecast social and economic development covid-19 pandemic special operation in ukraine hist demo Tatiana P. Skufina Sergey V. Baranov Vera P. Samarina Analysis of Forecasting Documents for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Arctic |
topic_facet |
russian arctic forecast social and economic development covid-19 pandemic special operation in ukraine hist demo |
description |
The tasks of forecasting the development of Russian territories, in particular the territory of the Arctic, are the most problematic due to the urgent need of the economy and management for a reliable forecast, the uncertainty of the near future caused by the turbulence of geopolitics, and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic processes, which are also not fully measurable. The purpose of the article is to present the initial grounds and forecast of the socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Arctic with a lead time up to 2023. The methodological peculiarity of the research is to take into account geopolitical, national, regional, industrial factors and development trends on the basis of using: 1) the analysis results of real and perspective global trends recorded in statistical indicators, forecast documents of the IMF, WTO, Central Bank, Ministry of Economic Development of Russia; 2) generalizations, comparisons of official forecasts and development plans of the AZRF adopted at the federal, regional levels, as well as forecasts, plans of corporations operating in the AZRF; 3) analysis of real statistical data using the author's econometric models. Given the considerable amount of analytical information received, the aspects and factors that have a key influence on the prospects of socio-economic development of the Arctic are outlined and classified according to the following levels: global, national, regional. Forecasts are made for the regions entirely located in the Arctic zone — Yamalo-Nenets, Nenets and Chukotka Autonomous okrugs, the Murmansk Oblast with an anticipation period up to 20212023. The importance of scientific forecasting in modern conditions is emphasized, encouraging reflection, new hypotheses, discussions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tatiana P. Skufina Sergey V. Baranov Vera P. Samarina |
author_facet |
Tatiana P. Skufina Sergey V. Baranov Vera P. Samarina |
author_sort |
Tatiana P. Skufina |
title |
Analysis of Forecasting Documents for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Arctic |
title_short |
Analysis of Forecasting Documents for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Arctic |
title_full |
Analysis of Forecasting Documents for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Analysis of Forecasting Documents for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis of Forecasting Documents for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Arctic |
title_sort |
analysis of forecasting documents for the socio-economic development of the russian arctic |
publisher |
Northern Arctic Federal University |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.37482/issn2221-2698.2022.48.57 https://doaj.org/article/c37aad08aba4485aa5f5529f91716d6f |
geographic |
Arctic Murmansk |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Murmansk |
genre |
Arctic Chukotka Murmansk Oblast nenets Yamalo Nenets |
genre_facet |
Arctic Chukotka Murmansk Oblast nenets Yamalo Nenets |
op_source |
Арктика и Север, Vol 48, Iss 48, Pp 49-63 (2022) |
op_relation |
doi:10.37482/issn2221-2698.2022.48.57 2221-2698 https://doaj.org/article/c37aad08aba4485aa5f5529f91716d6f |
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op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.37482/issn2221-2698.2022.48.57 |
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Arctic and North |
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48 |
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