Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble
We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions a...
Published in: | Climate of the Past |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2013
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 http://www.clim-past.net/9/2471/2013/cp-9-2471-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/article/bb54b66c474f4f4d868d9a4733a0e42d |
id |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:bb54b66c474f4f4d868d9a4733a0e42d |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:bb54b66c474f4f4d868d9a4733a0e42d 2023-05-15T17:33:01+02:00 Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble O. Bothe J. H. Jungclaus D. Zanchettin 2013-11-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 http://www.clim-past.net/9/2471/2013/cp-9-2471-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/article/bb54b66c474f4f4d868d9a4733a0e42d en eng Copernicus Publications 1814-9324 1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 http://www.clim-past.net/9/2471/2013/cp-9-2471-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/article/bb54b66c474f4f4d868d9a4733a0e42d undefined Climate of the Past, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp 2471-2487 (2013) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2013 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 2023-01-22T17:52:28Z We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions are compatible realizations of the unknown past climate evolution. A lack of consistency is diagnosed in surface air temperature data for the Pacific, European and North Atlantic regions. On the other hand, indications are found that temperature signals partially agree in the western tropical Pacific, the subtropical North Pacific and the South Atlantic. Deviations from consistency may change between sub-periods, and they may include pronounced opposite biases in different sub-periods. These distributional inconsistencies originate mainly from differences in multi-centennial to millennial trends. Since the data uncertainties are only weakly constrained, the frequently too wide ensemble distributions prevent the formal rejection of consistency of the simulation ensemble. The presented multi-model ensemble consistency assessment gives results very similar to a previously discussed single-model ensemble suggesting that structural and parametric uncertainties do not exceed forcing and internal variability uncertainties. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Unknown Pacific Climate of the Past 9 6 2471 2487 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
geo envir |
spellingShingle |
geo envir O. Bothe J. H. Jungclaus D. Zanchettin Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions are compatible realizations of the unknown past climate evolution. A lack of consistency is diagnosed in surface air temperature data for the Pacific, European and North Atlantic regions. On the other hand, indications are found that temperature signals partially agree in the western tropical Pacific, the subtropical North Pacific and the South Atlantic. Deviations from consistency may change between sub-periods, and they may include pronounced opposite biases in different sub-periods. These distributional inconsistencies originate mainly from differences in multi-centennial to millennial trends. Since the data uncertainties are only weakly constrained, the frequently too wide ensemble distributions prevent the formal rejection of consistency of the simulation ensemble. The presented multi-model ensemble consistency assessment gives results very similar to a previously discussed single-model ensemble suggesting that structural and parametric uncertainties do not exceed forcing and internal variability uncertainties. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
O. Bothe J. H. Jungclaus D. Zanchettin |
author_facet |
O. Bothe J. H. Jungclaus D. Zanchettin |
author_sort |
O. Bothe |
title |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_short |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_full |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_sort |
consistency of the multi-model cmip5/pmip3-past1000 ensemble |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 http://www.clim-past.net/9/2471/2013/cp-9-2471-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/article/bb54b66c474f4f4d868d9a4733a0e42d |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp 2471-2487 (2013) |
op_relation |
1814-9324 1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 http://www.clim-past.net/9/2471/2013/cp-9-2471-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/article/bb54b66c474f4f4d868d9a4733a0e42d |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2471 |
op_container_end_page |
2487 |
_version_ |
1766131369781493760 |