A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures
The last interglaciation (~130 to 116 ka) is a time period with a strong astronomically induced seasonal forcing of insolation compared to the present. Proxy records indicate a significantly different climate to that of the modern, in particular Arctic summer warming and higher eustatic sea level. B...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:b51afee21c4040bb8d52e7bef3598cf0 2023-05-15T15:08:37+02:00 A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures D. J. Lunt A. Abe-Ouchi P. Bakker A. Berger P. Braconnot S. Charbit N. Fischer N. Herold J. H. Jungclaus V. C. Khon U. Krebs-Kanzow P. M. Langebroek G. Lohmann K. H. Nisancioglu B. L. Otto-Bliesner W. Park M. Pfeiffer S. J. Phipps M. Prange R. Rachmayani H. Renssen N. Rosenbloom B. Schneider E. J. Stone K. Takahashi W. Wei Q. Yin Z. S. Zhang 2013-03-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-699-2013 http://www.clim-past.net/9/699/2013/cp-9-699-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/article/b51afee21c4040bb8d52e7bef3598cf0 en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/cp-9-699-2013 1814-9324 1814-9332 http://www.clim-past.net/9/699/2013/cp-9-699-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/article/b51afee21c4040bb8d52e7bef3598cf0 undefined Climate of the Past, Vol 9, Iss 2, Pp 699-717 (2013) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2013 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-699-2013 2023-01-22T17:58:09Z The last interglaciation (~130 to 116 ka) is a time period with a strong astronomically induced seasonal forcing of insolation compared to the present. Proxy records indicate a significantly different climate to that of the modern, in particular Arctic summer warming and higher eustatic sea level. Because the forcings are relatively well constrained, it provides an opportunity to test numerical models which are used for future climate prediction. In this paper we compile a set of climate model simulations of the early last interglaciation (130 to 125 ka), encompassing a range of model complexities. We compare the simulations to each other and to a recently published compilation of last interglacial temperature estimates. We show that the annual mean response of the models is rather small, with no clear signal in many regions. However, the seasonal response is more robust, and there is significant agreement amongst models as to the regions of warming vs cooling. However, the quantitative agreement of the model simulations with data is poor, with the models in general underestimating the magnitude of response seen in the proxies. Taking possible seasonal biases in the proxies into account improves the agreement, but only marginally. However, a lack of uncertainty estimates in the data does not allow us to draw firm conclusions. Instead, this paper points to several ways in which both modelling and data could be improved, to allow a more robust model–data comparison. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Unknown Arctic Climate of the Past 9 2 699 717 |
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language |
English |
topic |
envir geo |
spellingShingle |
envir geo D. J. Lunt A. Abe-Ouchi P. Bakker A. Berger P. Braconnot S. Charbit N. Fischer N. Herold J. H. Jungclaus V. C. Khon U. Krebs-Kanzow P. M. Langebroek G. Lohmann K. H. Nisancioglu B. L. Otto-Bliesner W. Park M. Pfeiffer S. J. Phipps M. Prange R. Rachmayani H. Renssen N. Rosenbloom B. Schneider E. J. Stone K. Takahashi W. Wei Q. Yin Z. S. Zhang A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
topic_facet |
envir geo |
description |
The last interglaciation (~130 to 116 ka) is a time period with a strong astronomically induced seasonal forcing of insolation compared to the present. Proxy records indicate a significantly different climate to that of the modern, in particular Arctic summer warming and higher eustatic sea level. Because the forcings are relatively well constrained, it provides an opportunity to test numerical models which are used for future climate prediction. In this paper we compile a set of climate model simulations of the early last interglaciation (130 to 125 ka), encompassing a range of model complexities. We compare the simulations to each other and to a recently published compilation of last interglacial temperature estimates. We show that the annual mean response of the models is rather small, with no clear signal in many regions. However, the seasonal response is more robust, and there is significant agreement amongst models as to the regions of warming vs cooling. However, the quantitative agreement of the model simulations with data is poor, with the models in general underestimating the magnitude of response seen in the proxies. Taking possible seasonal biases in the proxies into account improves the agreement, but only marginally. However, a lack of uncertainty estimates in the data does not allow us to draw firm conclusions. Instead, this paper points to several ways in which both modelling and data could be improved, to allow a more robust model–data comparison. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
D. J. Lunt A. Abe-Ouchi P. Bakker A. Berger P. Braconnot S. Charbit N. Fischer N. Herold J. H. Jungclaus V. C. Khon U. Krebs-Kanzow P. M. Langebroek G. Lohmann K. H. Nisancioglu B. L. Otto-Bliesner W. Park M. Pfeiffer S. J. Phipps M. Prange R. Rachmayani H. Renssen N. Rosenbloom B. Schneider E. J. Stone K. Takahashi W. Wei Q. Yin Z. S. Zhang |
author_facet |
D. J. Lunt A. Abe-Ouchi P. Bakker A. Berger P. Braconnot S. Charbit N. Fischer N. Herold J. H. Jungclaus V. C. Khon U. Krebs-Kanzow P. M. Langebroek G. Lohmann K. H. Nisancioglu B. L. Otto-Bliesner W. Park M. Pfeiffer S. J. Phipps M. Prange R. Rachmayani H. Renssen N. Rosenbloom B. Schneider E. J. Stone K. Takahashi W. Wei Q. Yin Z. S. Zhang |
author_sort |
D. J. Lunt |
title |
A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
title_short |
A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
title_full |
A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
title_fullStr |
A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
title_full_unstemmed |
A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
title_sort |
multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-699-2013 http://www.clim-past.net/9/699/2013/cp-9-699-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/article/b51afee21c4040bb8d52e7bef3598cf0 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 9, Iss 2, Pp 699-717 (2013) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/cp-9-699-2013 1814-9324 1814-9332 http://www.clim-past.net/9/699/2013/cp-9-699-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/article/b51afee21c4040bb8d52e7bef3598cf0 |
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https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-699-2013 |
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Climate of the Past |
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9 |
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2 |
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699 |
op_container_end_page |
717 |
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