Scoring Antarctic surface mass balance in climate models to refine future projections
An increase in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) surface mass balance (SMB) has the potential to mitigate future sea level rise that is driven by enhanced solid ice discharge from the ice sheet. For climate models, AIS SMB provides a difficult challenge, as it is highly susceptible to spatial, seasonal, and...
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Copernicus Publications
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:b2e2dc4e24f64ad48e0ab5e2d18b4717 2023-05-15T13:59:11+02:00 Scoring Antarctic surface mass balance in climate models to refine future projections T. Gorte J. T. M. Lenaerts B. Medley 2020-12-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/4719/2020/tc-14-4719-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/b2e2dc4e24f64ad48e0ab5e2d18b4717 en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/4719/2020/tc-14-4719-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/b2e2dc4e24f64ad48e0ab5e2d18b4717 undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 4719-4733 (2020) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2020 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020 2023-01-22T19:25:47Z An increase in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) surface mass balance (SMB) has the potential to mitigate future sea level rise that is driven by enhanced solid ice discharge from the ice sheet. For climate models, AIS SMB provides a difficult challenge, as it is highly susceptible to spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability. Here we use a reconstructed data set of AIS snow accumulation as “true” observational data, to evaluate the ability of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 suites of models in capturing the mean, trends, temporal variability, and spatial variability in SMB over the historical period (1850–2000). This gives insight into which models are most reliable for predicting SMB into the future. We found that the best scoring models included the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) GISS model and the Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Meteorology's model for CMIP5, as well as one of the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) models and one MPI model for CMIP6. Using a scoring system based on SMB mean value, trend, and temporal variability across the AIS, as well as spatial SMB variability, we selected a subset of the top 10th percentile of models to refine 21st century (2000–2100) AIS-integrated SMB projections to 2274 ± 282 Gt yr−1, 2358 ± 286 Gt yr−1, and 2495 ± 291 Gt yr−1 for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. We also reduced the spread in AIS-integrated mean SMB by 79 %, 79 %, and 74 % in RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. Notably, we find that there is no improvement from CMIP5 to CMIP6 in overall score. In fact, CMIP6 performed slightly worse on average compared to CMIP5 at capturing the aforementioned SMB criteria. Our results also indicate that model performance scoring is affected by internal climate variability (particularly the spatial variability), which is illustrated by the fact that the range in overall score between ensemble members within the CESM1 Large Ensemble is comparable to the range in overall score between CESM1 model simulations within ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Unknown Antarctic The Cryosphere 14 12 4719 4733 |
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envir geo T. Gorte J. T. M. Lenaerts B. Medley Scoring Antarctic surface mass balance in climate models to refine future projections |
topic_facet |
envir geo |
description |
An increase in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) surface mass balance (SMB) has the potential to mitigate future sea level rise that is driven by enhanced solid ice discharge from the ice sheet. For climate models, AIS SMB provides a difficult challenge, as it is highly susceptible to spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability. Here we use a reconstructed data set of AIS snow accumulation as “true” observational data, to evaluate the ability of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 suites of models in capturing the mean, trends, temporal variability, and spatial variability in SMB over the historical period (1850–2000). This gives insight into which models are most reliable for predicting SMB into the future. We found that the best scoring models included the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) GISS model and the Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Meteorology's model for CMIP5, as well as one of the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) models and one MPI model for CMIP6. Using a scoring system based on SMB mean value, trend, and temporal variability across the AIS, as well as spatial SMB variability, we selected a subset of the top 10th percentile of models to refine 21st century (2000–2100) AIS-integrated SMB projections to 2274 ± 282 Gt yr−1, 2358 ± 286 Gt yr−1, and 2495 ± 291 Gt yr−1 for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. We also reduced the spread in AIS-integrated mean SMB by 79 %, 79 %, and 74 % in RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. Notably, we find that there is no improvement from CMIP5 to CMIP6 in overall score. In fact, CMIP6 performed slightly worse on average compared to CMIP5 at capturing the aforementioned SMB criteria. Our results also indicate that model performance scoring is affected by internal climate variability (particularly the spatial variability), which is illustrated by the fact that the range in overall score between ensemble members within the CESM1 Large Ensemble is comparable to the range in overall score between CESM1 model simulations within ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
T. Gorte J. T. M. Lenaerts B. Medley |
author_facet |
T. Gorte J. T. M. Lenaerts B. Medley |
author_sort |
T. Gorte |
title |
Scoring Antarctic surface mass balance in climate models to refine future projections |
title_short |
Scoring Antarctic surface mass balance in climate models to refine future projections |
title_full |
Scoring Antarctic surface mass balance in climate models to refine future projections |
title_fullStr |
Scoring Antarctic surface mass balance in climate models to refine future projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Scoring Antarctic surface mass balance in climate models to refine future projections |
title_sort |
scoring antarctic surface mass balance in climate models to refine future projections |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/4719/2020/tc-14-4719-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/b2e2dc4e24f64ad48e0ab5e2d18b4717 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 4719-4733 (2020) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/4719/2020/tc-14-4719-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/b2e2dc4e24f64ad48e0ab5e2d18b4717 |
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undefined |
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https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020 |
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The Cryosphere |
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14 |
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4733 |
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