Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr
We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detect...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:a6e7f27e69574c6197c779a67fe9f5a2 2023-05-15T16:27:15+02:00 Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr V. N. Livina F. Kwasniok T. M. Lenton 2010-02-01 http://www.clim-past.net/6/77/2010/cp-6-77-2010.pdf https://doaj.org/article/a6e7f27e69574c6197c779a67fe9f5a2 en eng Copernicus Publications 1814-9324 1814-9332 http://www.clim-past.net/6/77/2010/cp-6-77-2010.pdf https://doaj.org/article/a6e7f27e69574c6197c779a67fe9f5a2 undefined Climate of the Past, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 77-82 (2010) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2010 fttriple 2023-01-22T17:53:05Z We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), 23–19 kyr BP. This result is also found in analysis of Greenland Ca data. The bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland ice core Unknown Greenland |
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envir geo V. N. Livina F. Kwasniok T. M. Lenton Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
topic_facet |
envir geo |
description |
We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), 23–19 kyr BP. This result is also found in analysis of Greenland Ca data. The bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
V. N. Livina F. Kwasniok T. M. Lenton |
author_facet |
V. N. Livina F. Kwasniok T. M. Lenton |
author_sort |
V. N. Livina |
title |
Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
title_short |
Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
title_full |
Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
title_fullStr |
Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
title_sort |
potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://www.clim-past.net/6/77/2010/cp-6-77-2010.pdf https://doaj.org/article/a6e7f27e69574c6197c779a67fe9f5a2 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland ice core |
genre_facet |
Greenland ice core |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 77-82 (2010) |
op_relation |
1814-9324 1814-9332 http://www.clim-past.net/6/77/2010/cp-6-77-2010.pdf https://doaj.org/article/a6e7f27e69574c6197c779a67fe9f5a2 |
op_rights |
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_version_ |
1766016382848204800 |