Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models
Abstract Future coastal flood hazard at many locations will be impacted by both tropical cyclone (TC) change and relative sea‐level rise (SLR). Despite sea level and TC activity being influenced by common thermodynamic and dynamic climate variables, their future changes are generally considered inde...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002462 https://doaj.org/article/9f314d76c6284ab78bfed615b19cfdea |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:9f314d76c6284ab78bfed615b19cfdea 2023-05-15T17:34:53+02:00 Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models Joseph W. Lockwood Michael Oppenheimer Ning Lin Robert E. Kopp Gabriel A. Vecchi Avantika Gori 2022-04-01 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002462 https://doaj.org/article/9f314d76c6284ab78bfed615b19cfdea en eng Wiley 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2021EF002462 https://doaj.org/article/9f314d76c6284ab78bfed615b19cfdea undefined Earth's Future, Vol 10, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2022 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002462 2023-01-22T19:15:08Z Abstract Future coastal flood hazard at many locations will be impacted by both tropical cyclone (TC) change and relative sea‐level rise (SLR). Despite sea level and TC activity being influenced by common thermodynamic and dynamic climate variables, their future changes are generally considered independently. Here, we investigate correlations between SLR and TC change derived from simulations of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. We first explore correlations between SLR and TC activity by inference from two large‐scale factors known to modulate TC activity: potential intensity (PI) and vertical wind shear. Under the high emissions SSP5‐8.5, SLR is strongly correlated with PI change (positively) and vertical wind shear change (negatively) over much of the western North Atlantic and North West Pacific, with global mean surface air temperature (GSAT) modulating the co‐variability. To explore the impact of the joint changes on flood hazard, we conduct climatological–hydrodynamic modeling at five sites along the US East and Gulf Coasts. Positive correlations between SLR and TC change alter flood hazard projections, particularly at Wilmington, Charleston and New Orleans. For example, if positive correlations between SLR and TC changes are ignored in estimating flood hazard at Wilmington, the average projected change to the historical 100 years storm tide event is under‐estimated by 12%. Our results suggest that flood hazard assessments that neglect the joint influence of these factors and that do not reflect the full distribution of GSAT change may not accurately represent future flood hazard. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Unknown Orleans ENVELOPE(-60.667,-60.667,-63.950,-63.950) Pacific Earth's Future 10 4 |
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English |
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geo envir |
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geo envir Joseph W. Lockwood Michael Oppenheimer Ning Lin Robert E. Kopp Gabriel A. Vecchi Avantika Gori Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
Abstract Future coastal flood hazard at many locations will be impacted by both tropical cyclone (TC) change and relative sea‐level rise (SLR). Despite sea level and TC activity being influenced by common thermodynamic and dynamic climate variables, their future changes are generally considered independently. Here, we investigate correlations between SLR and TC change derived from simulations of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. We first explore correlations between SLR and TC activity by inference from two large‐scale factors known to modulate TC activity: potential intensity (PI) and vertical wind shear. Under the high emissions SSP5‐8.5, SLR is strongly correlated with PI change (positively) and vertical wind shear change (negatively) over much of the western North Atlantic and North West Pacific, with global mean surface air temperature (GSAT) modulating the co‐variability. To explore the impact of the joint changes on flood hazard, we conduct climatological–hydrodynamic modeling at five sites along the US East and Gulf Coasts. Positive correlations between SLR and TC change alter flood hazard projections, particularly at Wilmington, Charleston and New Orleans. For example, if positive correlations between SLR and TC changes are ignored in estimating flood hazard at Wilmington, the average projected change to the historical 100 years storm tide event is under‐estimated by 12%. Our results suggest that flood hazard assessments that neglect the joint influence of these factors and that do not reflect the full distribution of GSAT change may not accurately represent future flood hazard. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Joseph W. Lockwood Michael Oppenheimer Ning Lin Robert E. Kopp Gabriel A. Vecchi Avantika Gori |
author_facet |
Joseph W. Lockwood Michael Oppenheimer Ning Lin Robert E. Kopp Gabriel A. Vecchi Avantika Gori |
author_sort |
Joseph W. Lockwood |
title |
Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models |
title_short |
Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models |
title_full |
Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models |
title_fullStr |
Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models |
title_sort |
correlation between sea‐level rise and aspects of future tropical cyclone activity in cmip6 models |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002462 https://doaj.org/article/9f314d76c6284ab78bfed615b19cfdea |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-60.667,-60.667,-63.950,-63.950) |
geographic |
Orleans Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Orleans Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Earth's Future, Vol 10, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) |
op_relation |
2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2021EF002462 https://doaj.org/article/9f314d76c6284ab78bfed615b19cfdea |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002462 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
4 |
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1766133851081408512 |