Predictability of South-Asian monsoon rainfall beyond the legacy of Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA)
Abstract In the backdrop of overwhelming evidences of associations between North-Atlantic (NA) sea-surface temperature (SST) and the Indian summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), the lack of a quantitative nonlinear causal inference has been a roadblock for advancing ISMR predictability. Here, we advance a...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:94ed3e3906ca4b4fb229ae4013ea7d32 2023-05-15T17:32:13+02:00 Predictability of South-Asian monsoon rainfall beyond the legacy of Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA) B. N. Goswami Deepayan Chakraborty P. V. Rajesh Adway Mitra 2022-07-01 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00281-3 https://doaj.org/article/94ed3e3906ca4b4fb229ae4013ea7d32 en eng Nature Portfolio doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00281-3 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/94ed3e3906ca4b4fb229ae4013ea7d32 undefined npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 5, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2022) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2022 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00281-3 2023-01-22T17:32:56Z Abstract In the backdrop of overwhelming evidences of associations between North-Atlantic (NA) sea-surface temperature (SST) and the Indian summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), the lack of a quantitative nonlinear causal inference has been a roadblock for advancing ISMR predictability. Here, we advance a hypothesis of teleconnection between the NA-SST and ISMR, and establish the causality between the two using two different nonlinear causal inference techniques. We unravel that the NA-SST and the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two independent drivers of ISMR with the former contributing as much to ISMR variability as does the latter. Observations and climate model simulations support the NA-SST–ISMR causality through a Rossby wave-train driven by NA-SST that modulates the seasonal mean by forcing long active (break) spells of ISMR. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Unknown Indian npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 5 1 |
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envir geo B. N. Goswami Deepayan Chakraborty P. V. Rajesh Adway Mitra Predictability of South-Asian monsoon rainfall beyond the legacy of Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA) |
topic_facet |
envir geo |
description |
Abstract In the backdrop of overwhelming evidences of associations between North-Atlantic (NA) sea-surface temperature (SST) and the Indian summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), the lack of a quantitative nonlinear causal inference has been a roadblock for advancing ISMR predictability. Here, we advance a hypothesis of teleconnection between the NA-SST and ISMR, and establish the causality between the two using two different nonlinear causal inference techniques. We unravel that the NA-SST and the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two independent drivers of ISMR with the former contributing as much to ISMR variability as does the latter. Observations and climate model simulations support the NA-SST–ISMR causality through a Rossby wave-train driven by NA-SST that modulates the seasonal mean by forcing long active (break) spells of ISMR. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
B. N. Goswami Deepayan Chakraborty P. V. Rajesh Adway Mitra |
author_facet |
B. N. Goswami Deepayan Chakraborty P. V. Rajesh Adway Mitra |
author_sort |
B. N. Goswami |
title |
Predictability of South-Asian monsoon rainfall beyond the legacy of Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA) |
title_short |
Predictability of South-Asian monsoon rainfall beyond the legacy of Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA) |
title_full |
Predictability of South-Asian monsoon rainfall beyond the legacy of Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA) |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of South-Asian monsoon rainfall beyond the legacy of Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of South-Asian monsoon rainfall beyond the legacy of Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA) |
title_sort |
predictability of south-asian monsoon rainfall beyond the legacy of tropical ocean global atmosphere program (toga) |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00281-3 https://doaj.org/article/94ed3e3906ca4b4fb229ae4013ea7d32 |
geographic |
Indian |
geographic_facet |
Indian |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 5, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2022) |
op_relation |
doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00281-3 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/94ed3e3906ca4b4fb229ae4013ea7d32 |
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undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00281-3 |
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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
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5 |
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1 |
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1766130233363136512 |