Assimilating near-real-time mass balance stake readings into a model ensemble using a particle filter

Short-term glacier variations can be important for water supplies or hydropower production, and glaciers are important indicators of climate change. This is why the interest in near-real-time mass balance nowcasting is considerable. Here, we address this interest and provide an evaluation of continu...

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Published in:The Cryosphere
Main Authors: J. M. Landmann, H. R. Künsch, M. Huss, C. Ogier, M. Kalisch, D. Farinotti
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2021
Subjects:
geo
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5017-2021
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5017/2021/tc-15-5017-2021.pdf
https://doaj.org/article/8d3cf11c5c744880ad77aff8d2fd0f26
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spelling fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:8d3cf11c5c744880ad77aff8d2fd0f26 2023-05-15T18:32:18+02:00 Assimilating near-real-time mass balance stake readings into a model ensemble using a particle filter J. M. Landmann H. R. Künsch M. Huss C. Ogier M. Kalisch D. Farinotti 2021-11-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5017-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5017/2021/tc-15-5017-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/8d3cf11c5c744880ad77aff8d2fd0f26 en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-15-5017-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5017/2021/tc-15-5017-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/8d3cf11c5c744880ad77aff8d2fd0f26 undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 5017-5040 (2021) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2021 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5017-2021 2023-01-22T19:28:48Z Short-term glacier variations can be important for water supplies or hydropower production, and glaciers are important indicators of climate change. This is why the interest in near-real-time mass balance nowcasting is considerable. Here, we address this interest and provide an evaluation of continuous observations of point mass balance based on online cameras transmitting images every 20 min. The cameras were installed on three Swiss glaciers during summer 2019, provided 352 near-real-time point mass balances in total, and revealed melt rates of up to 0.12 m water equivalent per day (mw.e.d-1) and of more than 5 mw.e. in 81 d. By means of a particle filter, these observations are assimilated into an ensemble of three TI (temperature index) and one simplified energy-balance mass balance models. State augmentation with model parameters is used to assign temporally varying weights to individual models. We analyze model performance over the observation period and find that the probability for a given model to be preferred by our procedure is 39 % for an enhanced TI model, 24 % for a simple TI model, 23 %, for a simplified energy balance model, and 14 % for a model employing both air temperature and potential solar irradiation. When compared to reference forecasts produced with both mean model parameters and parameters tuned on single mass balance observations, the particle filter performs about equally well on the daily scale but outperforms predictions of cumulative mass balance by 95 %–96 %. A leave-one-out cross-validation on the individual glaciers shows that the particle filter is also able to reproduce point observations at locations not used for model calibration. Indeed, the predicted mass balances is always within 9 % of the observations. A comparison with glacier-wide annual mass balances involving additional measurements distributed over the entire glacier mostly shows very good agreement, with deviations of 0.02, 0.07, and 0.24 mw.e. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Unknown The Cryosphere 15 11 5017 5040
institution Open Polar
collection Unknown
op_collection_id fttriple
language English
topic envir
geo
spellingShingle envir
geo
J. M. Landmann
H. R. Künsch
M. Huss
C. Ogier
M. Kalisch
D. Farinotti
Assimilating near-real-time mass balance stake readings into a model ensemble using a particle filter
topic_facet envir
geo
description Short-term glacier variations can be important for water supplies or hydropower production, and glaciers are important indicators of climate change. This is why the interest in near-real-time mass balance nowcasting is considerable. Here, we address this interest and provide an evaluation of continuous observations of point mass balance based on online cameras transmitting images every 20 min. The cameras were installed on three Swiss glaciers during summer 2019, provided 352 near-real-time point mass balances in total, and revealed melt rates of up to 0.12 m water equivalent per day (mw.e.d-1) and of more than 5 mw.e. in 81 d. By means of a particle filter, these observations are assimilated into an ensemble of three TI (temperature index) and one simplified energy-balance mass balance models. State augmentation with model parameters is used to assign temporally varying weights to individual models. We analyze model performance over the observation period and find that the probability for a given model to be preferred by our procedure is 39 % for an enhanced TI model, 24 % for a simple TI model, 23 %, for a simplified energy balance model, and 14 % for a model employing both air temperature and potential solar irradiation. When compared to reference forecasts produced with both mean model parameters and parameters tuned on single mass balance observations, the particle filter performs about equally well on the daily scale but outperforms predictions of cumulative mass balance by 95 %–96 %. A leave-one-out cross-validation on the individual glaciers shows that the particle filter is also able to reproduce point observations at locations not used for model calibration. Indeed, the predicted mass balances is always within 9 % of the observations. A comparison with glacier-wide annual mass balances involving additional measurements distributed over the entire glacier mostly shows very good agreement, with deviations of 0.02, 0.07, and 0.24 mw.e.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author J. M. Landmann
H. R. Künsch
M. Huss
C. Ogier
M. Kalisch
D. Farinotti
author_facet J. M. Landmann
H. R. Künsch
M. Huss
C. Ogier
M. Kalisch
D. Farinotti
author_sort J. M. Landmann
title Assimilating near-real-time mass balance stake readings into a model ensemble using a particle filter
title_short Assimilating near-real-time mass balance stake readings into a model ensemble using a particle filter
title_full Assimilating near-real-time mass balance stake readings into a model ensemble using a particle filter
title_fullStr Assimilating near-real-time mass balance stake readings into a model ensemble using a particle filter
title_full_unstemmed Assimilating near-real-time mass balance stake readings into a model ensemble using a particle filter
title_sort assimilating near-real-time mass balance stake readings into a model ensemble using a particle filter
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2021
url https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5017-2021
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5017/2021/tc-15-5017-2021.pdf
https://doaj.org/article/8d3cf11c5c744880ad77aff8d2fd0f26
genre The Cryosphere
genre_facet The Cryosphere
op_source The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 5017-5040 (2021)
op_relation doi:10.5194/tc-15-5017-2021
1994-0416
1994-0424
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5017/2021/tc-15-5017-2021.pdf
https://doaj.org/article/8d3cf11c5c744880ad77aff8d2fd0f26
op_rights undefined
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5017-2021
container_title The Cryosphere
container_volume 15
container_issue 11
container_start_page 5017
op_container_end_page 5040
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