Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most prominent mode of atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Because of the close relationship between the NAO and regional climate in Eurasia, North Atlantic, and North America, improving the prediction skill for the NAO has attracted much a...
Published in: | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2019.1628608 https://doaj.org/article/8b61f5564f6f4ddab3e50fd01bfd0e51 |
id |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:8b61f5564f6f4ddab3e50fd01bfd0e51 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:8b61f5564f6f4ddab3e50fd01bfd0e51 2023-05-15T17:28:01+02:00 Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation Xinnong PAN Geli WANG Peicai YANG 2019-09-01 https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2019.1628608 https://doaj.org/article/8b61f5564f6f4ddab3e50fd01bfd0e51 en eng KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 1674-2834 2376-6123 doi:10.1080/16742834.2019.1628608 https://doaj.org/article/8b61f5564f6f4ddab3e50fd01bfd0e51 undefined Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Vol 12, Iss 5, Pp 329-336 (2019) North Atlantic Oscillation slow feature analysis driving force characteristics time series prediction envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2019 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2019.1628608 2023-01-22T19:33:44Z The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most prominent mode of atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Because of the close relationship between the NAO and regional climate in Eurasia, North Atlantic, and North America, improving the prediction skill for the NAO has attracted much attention. Previous studies that focused on the predictability of the NAO were often based upon simulations by climate models. In this study, the authors took advantage of Slow Feature Analysis to extract information on the driving forces from daily NAO index and introduced it into phase-space reconstruction. By computing the largest Lyapunov exponent, the authors found that the predictability of daily NAO index shows a significant increase when its driving force signal is considered. Furthermore, the authors conducted a short-term prediction for the NAO by using a global prediction model for chaotic time series that incorporated the driving-force information. Results showed that the prediction skill for the NAO can be largely increased. In addition, results from wavelet analysis suggested that the driving-force signal of the NAO is associated with three basic drivers: the annual cycle (1.02 yr), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) (2.44 yr), and the solar cycle (11.6 yr), which indicates the critical roles of the QBO and solar activities in the predictability of the NAO. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Unknown Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 12 5 329 336 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
North Atlantic Oscillation slow feature analysis driving force characteristics time series prediction envir geo |
spellingShingle |
North Atlantic Oscillation slow feature analysis driving force characteristics time series prediction envir geo Xinnong PAN Geli WANG Peicai YANG Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation |
topic_facet |
North Atlantic Oscillation slow feature analysis driving force characteristics time series prediction envir geo |
description |
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most prominent mode of atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Because of the close relationship between the NAO and regional climate in Eurasia, North Atlantic, and North America, improving the prediction skill for the NAO has attracted much attention. Previous studies that focused on the predictability of the NAO were often based upon simulations by climate models. In this study, the authors took advantage of Slow Feature Analysis to extract information on the driving forces from daily NAO index and introduced it into phase-space reconstruction. By computing the largest Lyapunov exponent, the authors found that the predictability of daily NAO index shows a significant increase when its driving force signal is considered. Furthermore, the authors conducted a short-term prediction for the NAO by using a global prediction model for chaotic time series that incorporated the driving-force information. Results showed that the prediction skill for the NAO can be largely increased. In addition, results from wavelet analysis suggested that the driving-force signal of the NAO is associated with three basic drivers: the annual cycle (1.02 yr), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) (2.44 yr), and the solar cycle (11.6 yr), which indicates the critical roles of the QBO and solar activities in the predictability of the NAO. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Xinnong PAN Geli WANG Peicai YANG |
author_facet |
Xinnong PAN Geli WANG Peicai YANG |
author_sort |
Xinnong PAN |
title |
Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_short |
Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_full |
Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_fullStr |
Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_sort |
introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the north atlantic oscillation |
publisher |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2019.1628608 https://doaj.org/article/8b61f5564f6f4ddab3e50fd01bfd0e51 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Vol 12, Iss 5, Pp 329-336 (2019) |
op_relation |
1674-2834 2376-6123 doi:10.1080/16742834.2019.1628608 https://doaj.org/article/8b61f5564f6f4ddab3e50fd01bfd0e51 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2019.1628608 |
container_title |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
329 |
op_container_end_page |
336 |
_version_ |
1766120456375500800 |