Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article)
Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides; seiches; and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by atmospheric planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive water hei...
Published in: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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Copernicus Publications
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2705/2021/nhess-21-2705-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/83b455ac0010464580735c1050a8b1a0 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:83b455ac0010464580735c1050a8b1a0 2023-05-15T13:38:29+02:00 Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) P. Lionello D. Barriopedro C. Ferrarin R. J. Nicholls M. Orlić F. Raicich M. Reale G. Umgiesser M. Vousdoukas D. Zanchettin 2021-09-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2705/2021/nhess-21-2705-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/83b455ac0010464580735c1050a8b1a0 en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021 1561-8633 1684-9981 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2705/2021/nhess-21-2705-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/83b455ac0010464580735c1050a8b1a0 undefined Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 21, Pp 2705-2731 (2021) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2021 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021 2023-01-22T17:52:55Z Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides; seiches; and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by atmospheric planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive water height anomalies individually and can increase the probability of extreme events when they act constructively. The largest extreme water heights are mostly caused by the storm surges produced by the sirocco winds, leading to a characteristic seasonal cycle, with the largest and most frequent events occurring from November to March. Storm surges can be produced by cyclones whose centres are located either north or south of the Alps. Historically, the most intense events have been produced by cyclogenesis in the western Mediterranean, to the west of the main cyclogenetic area of the Mediterranean region in the Gulf of Genoa. Only a small fraction of the inter-annual variability in extreme water heights is described by fluctuations in the dominant patterns of atmospheric circulation variability over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Therefore, decadal fluctuations in water height extremes remain largely unexplained. In particular, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle does not appear to be steadily present if more than 100 years of observations are considered. The historic increase in the frequency of floods since the mid-19th century is explained by relative mean sea level rise. Analogously, future regional relative mean sea level rise will be the most important driver of increasing duration and intensity of Venice floods through this century, overcompensating for the small projected decrease in marine storminess. The future increase in extreme water heights covers a wide range, largely reflecting the highly uncertain mass contributions to future mean sea level rise from the melting of Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets, especially towards the end of the century. For a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), the magnitude of ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Unknown Greenland Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21 8 2705 2731 |
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geo envir P. Lionello D. Barriopedro C. Ferrarin R. J. Nicholls M. Orlić F. Raicich M. Reale G. Umgiesser M. Vousdoukas D. Zanchettin Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides; seiches; and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by atmospheric planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive water height anomalies individually and can increase the probability of extreme events when they act constructively. The largest extreme water heights are mostly caused by the storm surges produced by the sirocco winds, leading to a characteristic seasonal cycle, with the largest and most frequent events occurring from November to March. Storm surges can be produced by cyclones whose centres are located either north or south of the Alps. Historically, the most intense events have been produced by cyclogenesis in the western Mediterranean, to the west of the main cyclogenetic area of the Mediterranean region in the Gulf of Genoa. Only a small fraction of the inter-annual variability in extreme water heights is described by fluctuations in the dominant patterns of atmospheric circulation variability over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Therefore, decadal fluctuations in water height extremes remain largely unexplained. In particular, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle does not appear to be steadily present if more than 100 years of observations are considered. The historic increase in the frequency of floods since the mid-19th century is explained by relative mean sea level rise. Analogously, future regional relative mean sea level rise will be the most important driver of increasing duration and intensity of Venice floods through this century, overcompensating for the small projected decrease in marine storminess. The future increase in extreme water heights covers a wide range, largely reflecting the highly uncertain mass contributions to future mean sea level rise from the melting of Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets, especially towards the end of the century. For a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), the magnitude of ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
P. Lionello D. Barriopedro C. Ferrarin R. J. Nicholls M. Orlić F. Raicich M. Reale G. Umgiesser M. Vousdoukas D. Zanchettin |
author_facet |
P. Lionello D. Barriopedro C. Ferrarin R. J. Nicholls M. Orlić F. Raicich M. Reale G. Umgiesser M. Vousdoukas D. Zanchettin |
author_sort |
P. Lionello |
title |
Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
title_short |
Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
title_full |
Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
title_fullStr |
Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
title_sort |
extreme floods of venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2705/2021/nhess-21-2705-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/83b455ac0010464580735c1050a8b1a0 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
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Antarc* Antarctica Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland |
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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 21, Pp 2705-2731 (2021) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021 1561-8633 1684-9981 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2705/2021/nhess-21-2705-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/83b455ac0010464580735c1050a8b1a0 |
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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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