Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole
The Indian Ocean Dipole is a leading phenomenon of climate variability in the tropics, which affects the global climate. However, the best lead prediction skill for the Indian Ocean Dipole, until recently, has been limited to ~6 months before the occurrence of the event. Here, we show that multi-yea...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.736759 https://doaj.org/article/797a9771addc474e89c781be01b1e38b |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:797a9771addc474e89c781be01b1e38b 2023-05-15T18:24:31+02:00 Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole F. Feba Karumuri Ashok Matthew Collins Satish R. Shetye 2021-09-01 https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.736759 https://doaj.org/article/797a9771addc474e89c781be01b1e38b en eng Frontiers Media S.A. 2624-9553 doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.736759 https://doaj.org/article/797a9771addc474e89c781be01b1e38b undefined Frontiers in Climate, Vol 3 (2021) Indian Ocean (Dipole) decadal prediction CanCM4 MIROC5 Southern Ocean IOD and Southern Ocean geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2021 fttriple https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.736759 2023-01-22T18:58:47Z The Indian Ocean Dipole is a leading phenomenon of climate variability in the tropics, which affects the global climate. However, the best lead prediction skill for the Indian Ocean Dipole, until recently, has been limited to ~6 months before the occurrence of the event. Here, we show that multi-year prediction has made considerable advancement such that, for the first time, two general circulation models have significant prediction skills for the Indian Ocean Dipole for at least 2 years after initialization. This skill is present despite ENSO having a lead prediction skill of only 1 year. Our analysis of observed/reanalyzed ocean datasets shows that the source of this multi-year predictability lies in sub-surface signals that propagate from the Southern Ocean into the Indian Ocean. Prediction skill for a prominent climate driver like the Indian Ocean Dipole has wide-ranging benefits for climate science and society. Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean Unknown Indian Southern Ocean Frontiers in Climate 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
Indian Ocean (Dipole) decadal prediction CanCM4 MIROC5 Southern Ocean IOD and Southern Ocean geo envir |
spellingShingle |
Indian Ocean (Dipole) decadal prediction CanCM4 MIROC5 Southern Ocean IOD and Southern Ocean geo envir F. Feba Karumuri Ashok Matthew Collins Satish R. Shetye Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole |
topic_facet |
Indian Ocean (Dipole) decadal prediction CanCM4 MIROC5 Southern Ocean IOD and Southern Ocean geo envir |
description |
The Indian Ocean Dipole is a leading phenomenon of climate variability in the tropics, which affects the global climate. However, the best lead prediction skill for the Indian Ocean Dipole, until recently, has been limited to ~6 months before the occurrence of the event. Here, we show that multi-year prediction has made considerable advancement such that, for the first time, two general circulation models have significant prediction skills for the Indian Ocean Dipole for at least 2 years after initialization. This skill is present despite ENSO having a lead prediction skill of only 1 year. Our analysis of observed/reanalyzed ocean datasets shows that the source of this multi-year predictability lies in sub-surface signals that propagate from the Southern Ocean into the Indian Ocean. Prediction skill for a prominent climate driver like the Indian Ocean Dipole has wide-ranging benefits for climate science and society. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
F. Feba Karumuri Ashok Matthew Collins Satish R. Shetye |
author_facet |
F. Feba Karumuri Ashok Matthew Collins Satish R. Shetye |
author_sort |
F. Feba |
title |
Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole |
title_short |
Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole |
title_full |
Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole |
title_fullStr |
Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole |
title_full_unstemmed |
Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole |
title_sort |
emerging skill in multi-year prediction of the indian ocean dipole |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.736759 https://doaj.org/article/797a9771addc474e89c781be01b1e38b |
geographic |
Indian Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Indian Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Frontiers in Climate, Vol 3 (2021) |
op_relation |
2624-9553 doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.736759 https://doaj.org/article/797a9771addc474e89c781be01b1e38b |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.736759 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Climate |
container_volume |
3 |
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1766205129809199104 |