Principles of organizing earthquake forecasting based on multiparameter sensor-WEB monitoring data

• Published in: E3S Web of Conferences
• Main Authors: Pulinets Sergey, Ouzounov Dimitar, Davidenko Dmitry, Budnikov Pavel
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English; French
• Published: EDP Sciences 2020
• Subjects: geo; envir; Kamchatka
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202019603004; https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2020/56/e3sconf_strpep2020_03004.pdf; https://doaj.org/article/6e712903bde045b3ae9b92de750711c6

The paper describes an approach that allows, basing on the data of multiparameter monitoring of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters and using ground-based and satellite measurements, to select from the data stream a time interval indicating the beginning of the final stage of earthquake preparation, and finally using intelligent data processing to carry out a short-term forecast for a time interval of 2 weeks to 1 day before the main shock. Based on the physical model of the lithosphere-atmospheric-ionospheric coupling, the precursors are selected, the ensemble of which is observed only during the precursory periods, and their identification is based on morphological features determined by the physical mechanism of their generation, and not on amplitude selection based on statistical data processing. Basing on the developed maquette of the automatic processing service, the possibility of real-time monitoring of the situation in a seismically active region will be demonstrated using the territory of the Kamchatka region and the Kuril Islands.