Relationships between air temperature and ice conditions on the southern Baltic coastal lakes in the context of climate change
Shallow, lagoonal coastal lakes of the Southern Baltic are exceptionally susceptible to atmospheric factors. This work examines the influence of winter air temperatures in Ustka on ice parameters (dates of first ice occurrence and last ice disappearance, ice season duration, number of days with ice,...
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2022
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.4081/jlimnol.2022.2060 https://doaj.org/article/6cff700650824bcaa430da6edc0c56df |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:6cff700650824bcaa430da6edc0c56df 2023-05-15T18:18:52+02:00 Relationships between air temperature and ice conditions on the southern Baltic coastal lakes in the context of climate change Józef Piotr Girjatowicz Małgorzata Świątek Halina Kowalewska-Kalkowska 2022-04-01 https://doi.org/10.4081/jlimnol.2022.2060 https://doaj.org/article/6cff700650824bcaa430da6edc0c56df en eng PAGEPress Publications doi:10.4081/jlimnol.2022.2060 1129-5767 1723-8633 https://doaj.org/article/6cff700650824bcaa430da6edc0c56df undefined Journal of Limnology, Vol 81, Iss 1 (2022) coastal lakes southern Baltic Sea ice conditions air temperature statistical relationships trends geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2022 fttriple https://doi.org/10.4081/jlimnol.2022.2060 2023-01-22T19:11:31Z Shallow, lagoonal coastal lakes of the Southern Baltic are exceptionally susceptible to atmospheric factors. This work examines the influence of winter air temperatures in Ustka on ice parameters (dates of first ice occurrence and last ice disappearance, ice season duration, number of days with ice, and maximum ice thickness) on Southern Baltic coastal lakes (Jamno, Bukowo, Gardno, Łebsko), and trends displayed by changes in these parameters over the period spanning 1960/61-2019/20. The research data was retrieved from the archives of Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. As a first step of the analysis, we investigated the statistical relationships in spatial and temporal variations in winter air temperature and coastal lake ice parameters. Correlation and regression method was employed to determine the influence of air temperature on coastal lake ice conditions. Correlation and determination coefficients were calculated, and linear regression equations were determined. The statistical significance of the observed relationships was assessed using Fisher-Snedecor test. Additionally, linear trend models were constructed. Our analysis indicates that from 1960/61 to 2019/20, the average rate of increase in winter temperature (December-March) in Ustka equalled 0.04°C ⋅year-1. The correlation coefficients for air temperature versus ice parameters were highly statistically significant (p<0.001). The strongest relationships (with correlation coefficients below -0.90) occurred between air temperature and number of days with ice. Ice season duration and number of days with ice are both closely linked with last ice disappearance date and ice thickness. Our analysis shows that a 1°C increase in average seasonal air temperature will result in the number of days with ice on the studied coastal lakes becoming reduced by 16-17 days. All trends in ice parameters indicate a mildening of ice conditions. Most of the assessed trends are statistically significant. The strongest trends were ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Unknown Journal of Limnology 81 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
coastal lakes southern Baltic Sea ice conditions air temperature statistical relationships trends geo envir |
spellingShingle |
coastal lakes southern Baltic Sea ice conditions air temperature statistical relationships trends geo envir Józef Piotr Girjatowicz Małgorzata Świątek Halina Kowalewska-Kalkowska Relationships between air temperature and ice conditions on the southern Baltic coastal lakes in the context of climate change |
topic_facet |
coastal lakes southern Baltic Sea ice conditions air temperature statistical relationships trends geo envir |
description |
Shallow, lagoonal coastal lakes of the Southern Baltic are exceptionally susceptible to atmospheric factors. This work examines the influence of winter air temperatures in Ustka on ice parameters (dates of first ice occurrence and last ice disappearance, ice season duration, number of days with ice, and maximum ice thickness) on Southern Baltic coastal lakes (Jamno, Bukowo, Gardno, Łebsko), and trends displayed by changes in these parameters over the period spanning 1960/61-2019/20. The research data was retrieved from the archives of Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. As a first step of the analysis, we investigated the statistical relationships in spatial and temporal variations in winter air temperature and coastal lake ice parameters. Correlation and regression method was employed to determine the influence of air temperature on coastal lake ice conditions. Correlation and determination coefficients were calculated, and linear regression equations were determined. The statistical significance of the observed relationships was assessed using Fisher-Snedecor test. Additionally, linear trend models were constructed. Our analysis indicates that from 1960/61 to 2019/20, the average rate of increase in winter temperature (December-March) in Ustka equalled 0.04°C ⋅year-1. The correlation coefficients for air temperature versus ice parameters were highly statistically significant (p<0.001). The strongest relationships (with correlation coefficients below -0.90) occurred between air temperature and number of days with ice. Ice season duration and number of days with ice are both closely linked with last ice disappearance date and ice thickness. Our analysis shows that a 1°C increase in average seasonal air temperature will result in the number of days with ice on the studied coastal lakes becoming reduced by 16-17 days. All trends in ice parameters indicate a mildening of ice conditions. Most of the assessed trends are statistically significant. The strongest trends were ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Józef Piotr Girjatowicz Małgorzata Świątek Halina Kowalewska-Kalkowska |
author_facet |
Józef Piotr Girjatowicz Małgorzata Świątek Halina Kowalewska-Kalkowska |
author_sort |
Józef Piotr Girjatowicz |
title |
Relationships between air temperature and ice conditions on the southern Baltic coastal lakes in the context of climate change |
title_short |
Relationships between air temperature and ice conditions on the southern Baltic coastal lakes in the context of climate change |
title_full |
Relationships between air temperature and ice conditions on the southern Baltic coastal lakes in the context of climate change |
title_fullStr |
Relationships between air temperature and ice conditions on the southern Baltic coastal lakes in the context of climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Relationships between air temperature and ice conditions on the southern Baltic coastal lakes in the context of climate change |
title_sort |
relationships between air temperature and ice conditions on the southern baltic coastal lakes in the context of climate change |
publisher |
PAGEPress Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.4081/jlimnol.2022.2060 https://doaj.org/article/6cff700650824bcaa430da6edc0c56df |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Journal of Limnology, Vol 81, Iss 1 (2022) |
op_relation |
doi:10.4081/jlimnol.2022.2060 1129-5767 1723-8633 https://doaj.org/article/6cff700650824bcaa430da6edc0c56df |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.4081/jlimnol.2022.2060 |
container_title |
Journal of Limnology |
container_volume |
81 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766195602012504064 |