Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps – application to future climate and snow cover
In this study, snowpack scenarios are modelled across the French Alps using dynamically downscaled variables from the ALADIN Regional Climate Model (RCM) for the control period (1961–1990) and three emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1B and A2) for the mid- and late 21st century (2021–2050 and 2071–2100)...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/785/2012/tc-6-785-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/article/68452ce31e5c45ad963921416e4485e3 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:68452ce31e5c45ad963921416e4485e3 2023-05-15T18:32:20+02:00 Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps – application to future climate and snow cover M. Rousselot Y. Durand G. Giraud L. Mérindol I. Dombrowski-Etchevers M. Déqué H. Castebrunet 2012-07-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/785/2012/tc-6-785-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/article/68452ce31e5c45ad963921416e4485e3 en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 1994-0416 1994-0424 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/785/2012/tc-6-785-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/article/68452ce31e5c45ad963921416e4485e3 undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 6, Iss 4, Pp 785-805 (2012) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2012 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 2023-01-22T19:30:28Z In this study, snowpack scenarios are modelled across the French Alps using dynamically downscaled variables from the ALADIN Regional Climate Model (RCM) for the control period (1961–1990) and three emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1B and A2) for the mid- and late 21st century (2021–2050 and 2071–2100). These variables are statistically adapted to the different elevations, aspects and slopes of the Alpine massifs. For this purpose, we use a simple analogue criterion with ERA40 series as well as an existing detailed climatology of the French Alps (Durand et al., 2009a) that provides complete meteorological fields from the SAFRAN analysis model. The resulting scenarios of precipitation, temperature, wind, cloudiness, longwave and shortwave radiation, and humidity are used to run the physical snow model CROCUS and simulate snowpack evolution over the massifs studied. The seasonal and regional characteristics of the simulated climate and snow cover changes are explored, as is the influence of the scenarios on these changes. Preliminary results suggest that the snow water equivalent (SWE) of the snowpack will decrease dramatically in the next century, especially in the Southern and Extreme Southern parts of the Alps. This decrease seems to result primarily from a general warming throughout the year, and possibly a deficit of precipitation in the autumn. The magnitude of the snow cover decline follows a marked altitudinal gradient, with the highest altitudes being less exposed to climate change. Scenario A2, with its high concentrations of greenhouse gases, results in a SWE reduction roughly twice as large as in the low-emission scenario B1 by the end of the century. This study needs to be completed using simulations from other RCMs, since a multi-model approach is essential for uncertainty analysis. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Unknown The Cryosphere 6 4 785 805 |
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geo envir M. Rousselot Y. Durand G. Giraud L. Mérindol I. Dombrowski-Etchevers M. Déqué H. Castebrunet Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps – application to future climate and snow cover |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
In this study, snowpack scenarios are modelled across the French Alps using dynamically downscaled variables from the ALADIN Regional Climate Model (RCM) for the control period (1961–1990) and three emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1B and A2) for the mid- and late 21st century (2021–2050 and 2071–2100). These variables are statistically adapted to the different elevations, aspects and slopes of the Alpine massifs. For this purpose, we use a simple analogue criterion with ERA40 series as well as an existing detailed climatology of the French Alps (Durand et al., 2009a) that provides complete meteorological fields from the SAFRAN analysis model. The resulting scenarios of precipitation, temperature, wind, cloudiness, longwave and shortwave radiation, and humidity are used to run the physical snow model CROCUS and simulate snowpack evolution over the massifs studied. The seasonal and regional characteristics of the simulated climate and snow cover changes are explored, as is the influence of the scenarios on these changes. Preliminary results suggest that the snow water equivalent (SWE) of the snowpack will decrease dramatically in the next century, especially in the Southern and Extreme Southern parts of the Alps. This decrease seems to result primarily from a general warming throughout the year, and possibly a deficit of precipitation in the autumn. The magnitude of the snow cover decline follows a marked altitudinal gradient, with the highest altitudes being less exposed to climate change. Scenario A2, with its high concentrations of greenhouse gases, results in a SWE reduction roughly twice as large as in the low-emission scenario B1 by the end of the century. This study needs to be completed using simulations from other RCMs, since a multi-model approach is essential for uncertainty analysis. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. Rousselot Y. Durand G. Giraud L. Mérindol I. Dombrowski-Etchevers M. Déqué H. Castebrunet |
author_facet |
M. Rousselot Y. Durand G. Giraud L. Mérindol I. Dombrowski-Etchevers M. Déqué H. Castebrunet |
author_sort |
M. Rousselot |
title |
Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps – application to future climate and snow cover |
title_short |
Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps – application to future climate and snow cover |
title_full |
Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps – application to future climate and snow cover |
title_fullStr |
Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps – application to future climate and snow cover |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps – application to future climate and snow cover |
title_sort |
statistical adaptation of aladin rcm outputs over the french alps – application to future climate and snow cover |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/785/2012/tc-6-785-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/article/68452ce31e5c45ad963921416e4485e3 |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 6, Iss 4, Pp 785-805 (2012) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 1994-0416 1994-0424 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/785/2012/tc-6-785-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/article/68452ce31e5c45ad963921416e4485e3 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
785 |
op_container_end_page |
805 |
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1766216447800901632 |