Understanding model spread in sea ice volume by attribution of model differences in seasonal ice growth and melt
Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly, but predictions of its future loss are made difficult by the large spread both in present-day and in future sea ice area and volume; hence, there is a need to better understand the drivers of model spread in sea ice state. Here we present a framework for understa...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Copernicus Publications
2022
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4013-2022 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/4013/2022/tc-16-4013-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/article/65a1387a11e344dba463ab70ca435761 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:65a1387a11e344dba463ab70ca435761 2023-05-15T13:11:43+02:00 Understanding model spread in sea ice volume by attribution of model differences in seasonal ice growth and melt A. West E. Blockley M. Collins 2022-10-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4013-2022 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/4013/2022/tc-16-4013-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/article/65a1387a11e344dba463ab70ca435761 en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-16-4013-2022 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/4013/2022/tc-16-4013-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/article/65a1387a11e344dba463ab70ca435761 undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 16, Pp 4013-4032 (2022) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2022 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4013-2022 2023-01-22T19:26:17Z Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly, but predictions of its future loss are made difficult by the large spread both in present-day and in future sea ice area and volume; hence, there is a need to better understand the drivers of model spread in sea ice state. Here we present a framework for understanding differences between modelled sea ice simulations based on attributing seasonal ice growth and melt differences. In the method presented, the net downward surface flux is treated as the principal driver of seasonal sea ice growth and melt. An energy balance approach is used to estimate the pointwise effect of model differences in key Arctic climate variables on this surface flux and hence on seasonal sea ice growth and melt. We compare three models with very different historical sea ice simulations: HadGEM2-ES, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1.0. The largest driver of differences in ice growth and melt between these models is shown to be the ice area in summer (representing the surface albedo feedback) and the ice thickness distribution in winter (the thickness–growth feedback). Differences in snow and melt pond cover during the early summer exert a smaller effect on the seasonal growth and melt, hence representing the drivers of model differences in both this and in the sea ice volume. In particular, the direct impacts on sea ice growth and melt of differing model parameterisations of snow area and of melt ponds are shown to be small but non-negligible. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Unknown Arctic The Cryosphere 16 10 4013 4032 |
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English |
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geo envir |
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geo envir A. West E. Blockley M. Collins Understanding model spread in sea ice volume by attribution of model differences in seasonal ice growth and melt |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly, but predictions of its future loss are made difficult by the large spread both in present-day and in future sea ice area and volume; hence, there is a need to better understand the drivers of model spread in sea ice state. Here we present a framework for understanding differences between modelled sea ice simulations based on attributing seasonal ice growth and melt differences. In the method presented, the net downward surface flux is treated as the principal driver of seasonal sea ice growth and melt. An energy balance approach is used to estimate the pointwise effect of model differences in key Arctic climate variables on this surface flux and hence on seasonal sea ice growth and melt. We compare three models with very different historical sea ice simulations: HadGEM2-ES, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1.0. The largest driver of differences in ice growth and melt between these models is shown to be the ice area in summer (representing the surface albedo feedback) and the ice thickness distribution in winter (the thickness–growth feedback). Differences in snow and melt pond cover during the early summer exert a smaller effect on the seasonal growth and melt, hence representing the drivers of model differences in both this and in the sea ice volume. In particular, the direct impacts on sea ice growth and melt of differing model parameterisations of snow area and of melt ponds are shown to be small but non-negligible. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. West E. Blockley M. Collins |
author_facet |
A. West E. Blockley M. Collins |
author_sort |
A. West |
title |
Understanding model spread in sea ice volume by attribution of model differences in seasonal ice growth and melt |
title_short |
Understanding model spread in sea ice volume by attribution of model differences in seasonal ice growth and melt |
title_full |
Understanding model spread in sea ice volume by attribution of model differences in seasonal ice growth and melt |
title_fullStr |
Understanding model spread in sea ice volume by attribution of model differences in seasonal ice growth and melt |
title_full_unstemmed |
Understanding model spread in sea ice volume by attribution of model differences in seasonal ice growth and melt |
title_sort |
understanding model spread in sea ice volume by attribution of model differences in seasonal ice growth and melt |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4013-2022 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/4013/2022/tc-16-4013-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/article/65a1387a11e344dba463ab70ca435761 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 16, Pp 4013-4032 (2022) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-16-4013-2022 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/4013/2022/tc-16-4013-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/article/65a1387a11e344dba463ab70ca435761 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4013-2022 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
4013 |
op_container_end_page |
4032 |
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1766248647108853760 |