Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada
Numerous large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are known to substantially affect winter weather patterns in western C...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1567/2021/tc-15-1567-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/6222f05e1533489ab32530bbcb4e351f |
id |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:6222f05e1533489ab32530bbcb4e351f |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:6222f05e1533489ab32530bbcb4e351f 2023-05-15T15:16:10+02:00 Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada P. Haegeli B. Shandro P. Mair 2021-03-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1567/2021/tc-15-1567-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/6222f05e1533489ab32530bbcb4e351f en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1567/2021/tc-15-1567-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/6222f05e1533489ab32530bbcb4e351f undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 1567-1586 (2021) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2021 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021 2023-01-22T19:24:31Z Numerous large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are known to substantially affect winter weather patterns in western Canada. Several studies have examined the effect of these oscillations on avalanche hazard using long-term avalanche activity records from highway avalanche safety programmes. We present a new approach for gaining additional insight into these relationships that uses avalanche problem information published in public avalanche bulletins during the winters of 2010 to 2019. For each avalanche problem type, we calculate seasonal prevalence values for each forecast area, elevation band, and season, which are then included in a series of beta mixed-effects regression models to explore both the overall and regional effects of the Pacific-centered oscillations (POs; including ENSO, PDO, and PNA) and AO on the nature of avalanche hazard in the study area. We find significant negative effects of PO on the prevalence of storm slab avalanche problems, wind slab avalanche problems, and dry loose avalanche problems, which agree reasonably well with the known impacts of PO on winter weather in western Canada. The analysis also reveals a positive relationship between AO and the prevalence of deep persistent slab avalanche problems, particularly in the Rocky Mountains. In addition, we find several smaller-scale patterns that highlight that the avalanche hazard response to these oscillations varies regionally. Even though our study period is short, our study shows that the forecaster judgement included in avalanche problem assessments can add considerable value for these types of analyses. Since the predictability of the most important atmosphere–ocean oscillations is continuously improving, a better understanding of their effect on avalanche hazard can contribute to the development of informative seasonal avalanche forecasts in a ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic The Cryosphere Unknown Arctic Canada Pacific The Cryosphere 15 3 1567 1586 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
envir geo |
spellingShingle |
envir geo P. Haegeli B. Shandro P. Mair Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada |
topic_facet |
envir geo |
description |
Numerous large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are known to substantially affect winter weather patterns in western Canada. Several studies have examined the effect of these oscillations on avalanche hazard using long-term avalanche activity records from highway avalanche safety programmes. We present a new approach for gaining additional insight into these relationships that uses avalanche problem information published in public avalanche bulletins during the winters of 2010 to 2019. For each avalanche problem type, we calculate seasonal prevalence values for each forecast area, elevation band, and season, which are then included in a series of beta mixed-effects regression models to explore both the overall and regional effects of the Pacific-centered oscillations (POs; including ENSO, PDO, and PNA) and AO on the nature of avalanche hazard in the study area. We find significant negative effects of PO on the prevalence of storm slab avalanche problems, wind slab avalanche problems, and dry loose avalanche problems, which agree reasonably well with the known impacts of PO on winter weather in western Canada. The analysis also reveals a positive relationship between AO and the prevalence of deep persistent slab avalanche problems, particularly in the Rocky Mountains. In addition, we find several smaller-scale patterns that highlight that the avalanche hazard response to these oscillations varies regionally. Even though our study period is short, our study shows that the forecaster judgement included in avalanche problem assessments can add considerable value for these types of analyses. Since the predictability of the most important atmosphere–ocean oscillations is continuously improving, a better understanding of their effect on avalanche hazard can contribute to the development of informative seasonal avalanche forecasts in a ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
P. Haegeli B. Shandro P. Mair |
author_facet |
P. Haegeli B. Shandro P. Mair |
author_sort |
P. Haegeli |
title |
Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada |
title_short |
Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada |
title_full |
Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada |
title_fullStr |
Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada |
title_sort |
using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western canada |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1567/2021/tc-15-1567-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/6222f05e1533489ab32530bbcb4e351f |
geographic |
Arctic Canada Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada Pacific |
genre |
Arctic The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 1567-1586 (2021) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1567/2021/tc-15-1567-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/article/6222f05e1533489ab32530bbcb4e351f |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1567 |
op_container_end_page |
1586 |
_version_ |
1766346467795009536 |