Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden
As the risk of a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk....
Published in: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/2037/2015/nhess-15-2037-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/615b9955c7034c4c8cef5b8b73620b01 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:615b9955c7034c4c8cef5b8b73620b01 2023-05-15T17:44:42+02:00 Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden W. Yang M. Gardelin J. Olsson T. Bosshard 2015-09-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/2037/2015/nhess-15-2037-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/615b9955c7034c4c8cef5b8b73620b01 en eng Copernicus Publications 1561-8633 1684-9981 doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/2037/2015/nhess-15-2037-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/615b9955c7034c4c8cef5b8b73620b01 undefined Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 15, Iss 9, Pp 2037-2057 (2015) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2015 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 2023-01-22T17:50:00Z As the risk of a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40) and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3). The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Sweden Unknown Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15 9 2037 2057 |
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envir geo W. Yang M. Gardelin J. Olsson T. Bosshard Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
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envir geo |
description |
As the risk of a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40) and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3). The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
W. Yang M. Gardelin J. Olsson T. Bosshard |
author_facet |
W. Yang M. Gardelin J. Olsson T. Bosshard |
author_sort |
W. Yang |
title |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_short |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_full |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_fullStr |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_sort |
multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in sweden |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/2037/2015/nhess-15-2037-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/615b9955c7034c4c8cef5b8b73620b01 |
genre |
Northern Sweden |
genre_facet |
Northern Sweden |
op_source |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 15, Iss 9, Pp 2037-2057 (2015) |
op_relation |
1561-8633 1684-9981 doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/2037/2015/nhess-15-2037-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/615b9955c7034c4c8cef5b8b73620b01 |
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op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
2037 |
op_container_end_page |
2057 |
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1766146980293115904 |