The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent
The Arctic sea ice extent throughout the melt season is closely associated with initial sea ice state in winter and spring. Sea ice leads are important sites of energy fluxes in the Arctic Ocean, which may play an important role in the evolution of Arctic sea ice. In this study, we examine the poten...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Copernicus Publications
2018
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3747-2018 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3747/2018/tc-12-3747-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/544a1407b43240ae80e96d2f7fb7529b |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:544a1407b43240ae80e96d2f7fb7529b 2023-05-15T14:32:41+02:00 The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent Y. Zhang X. Cheng J. Liu F. Hui 2018-11-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3747-2018 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3747/2018/tc-12-3747-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/544a1407b43240ae80e96d2f7fb7529b en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-12-3747-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3747/2018/tc-12-3747-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/544a1407b43240ae80e96d2f7fb7529b undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 3747-3757 (2018) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2018 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3747-2018 2023-01-22T19:15:49Z The Arctic sea ice extent throughout the melt season is closely associated with initial sea ice state in winter and spring. Sea ice leads are important sites of energy fluxes in the Arctic Ocean, which may play an important role in the evolution of Arctic sea ice. In this study, we examine the potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent forecast using a recently developed daily sea ice lead product retrieved from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our results show that July pan-Arctic sea ice extent can be predicted from the area of sea ice leads integrated from midwinter to late spring, with a prediction error of 0.28 million km2 that is smaller than the standard deviation of the observed interannual variability. However, the predictive skills for August and September pan-Arctic sea ice extent are very low. When the area of sea ice leads integrated in the Atlantic and central and west Siberian sector of the Arctic is used, it has a significantly strong relationship (high predictability) with both July and August sea ice extent in the Atlantic and central and west Siberian sector of the Arctic. Thus, the realistic representation of sea ice leads (e.g., the areal coverage) in numerical prediction systems might improve the skill of forecast in the Arctic region. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice The Cryosphere Unknown Arctic Arctic Ocean Midwinter ENVELOPE(139.931,139.931,-66.690,-66.690) The Cryosphere 12 12 3747 3757 |
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language |
English |
topic |
geo envir |
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geo envir Y. Zhang X. Cheng J. Liu F. Hui The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
The Arctic sea ice extent throughout the melt season is closely associated with initial sea ice state in winter and spring. Sea ice leads are important sites of energy fluxes in the Arctic Ocean, which may play an important role in the evolution of Arctic sea ice. In this study, we examine the potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent forecast using a recently developed daily sea ice lead product retrieved from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our results show that July pan-Arctic sea ice extent can be predicted from the area of sea ice leads integrated from midwinter to late spring, with a prediction error of 0.28 million km2 that is smaller than the standard deviation of the observed interannual variability. However, the predictive skills for August and September pan-Arctic sea ice extent are very low. When the area of sea ice leads integrated in the Atlantic and central and west Siberian sector of the Arctic is used, it has a significantly strong relationship (high predictability) with both July and August sea ice extent in the Atlantic and central and west Siberian sector of the Arctic. Thus, the realistic representation of sea ice leads (e.g., the areal coverage) in numerical prediction systems might improve the skill of forecast in the Arctic region. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Y. Zhang X. Cheng J. Liu F. Hui |
author_facet |
Y. Zhang X. Cheng J. Liu F. Hui |
author_sort |
Y. Zhang |
title |
The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent |
title_short |
The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent |
title_full |
The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent |
title_fullStr |
The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent |
title_full_unstemmed |
The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent |
title_sort |
potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer arctic sea ice extent |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3747-2018 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3747/2018/tc-12-3747-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/544a1407b43240ae80e96d2f7fb7529b |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(139.931,139.931,-66.690,-66.690) |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Midwinter |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Midwinter |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 3747-3757 (2018) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-12-3747-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3747/2018/tc-12-3747-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/544a1407b43240ae80e96d2f7fb7529b |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3747-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
3747 |
op_container_end_page |
3757 |
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1766306049908801536 |