Melting ice, growing trade?
Abstract Large reductions in Arctic sea ice, most notably in summer, coupled with growing interest in Arctic shipping and resource exploitation have renewed interest in the economic potential of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Two key constraints on the future viability of the NSR pertain to bathymetr...
Published in: | Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene |
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2016
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.000107 https://doaj.org/article/46cd9e273ee4416ab06fa754b45d3865 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:46cd9e273ee4416ab06fa754b45d3865 2023-05-15T14:50:53+02:00 Melting ice, growing trade? Sami Bensassi Julienne C. Stroeve Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso Andrew P. Barrett 2016-05-01 https://doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.000107 https://doaj.org/article/46cd9e273ee4416ab06fa754b45d3865 en eng BioOne 2325-1026 doi:10.12952/journal.elementa.000107 https://doaj.org/article/46cd9e273ee4416ab06fa754b45d3865 undefined Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene (2016) Arctic sea ice Northern Sea Route Climate and trade models geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2016 fttriple https://doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.000107 2023-01-22T18:11:45Z Abstract Large reductions in Arctic sea ice, most notably in summer, coupled with growing interest in Arctic shipping and resource exploitation have renewed interest in the economic potential of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Two key constraints on the future viability of the NSR pertain to bathymetry and the future evolution of the sea ice cover. Climate model projections of future sea ice conditions throughout the rest of the century suggest that even under the most “aggressive” emission scenario, increases in international trade between Europe and Asia will be very low. The large inter-annual variability of weather and sea ice conditions in the route, the Russian toll imposed for transiting the NSR, together with high insurance costs and scarce loading/unloading opportunities, limit the use of the NSR. We show that even if these obstacles are removed, the duration of the opening of the NSR over the course of the century is not long enough to offer a consequent boost to international trade at the macroeconomic level. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Northern Sea Route Sea ice Unknown Arctic Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic sea ice Northern Sea Route Climate and trade models geo envir |
spellingShingle |
Arctic sea ice Northern Sea Route Climate and trade models geo envir Sami Bensassi Julienne C. Stroeve Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso Andrew P. Barrett Melting ice, growing trade? |
topic_facet |
Arctic sea ice Northern Sea Route Climate and trade models geo envir |
description |
Abstract Large reductions in Arctic sea ice, most notably in summer, coupled with growing interest in Arctic shipping and resource exploitation have renewed interest in the economic potential of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Two key constraints on the future viability of the NSR pertain to bathymetry and the future evolution of the sea ice cover. Climate model projections of future sea ice conditions throughout the rest of the century suggest that even under the most “aggressive” emission scenario, increases in international trade between Europe and Asia will be very low. The large inter-annual variability of weather and sea ice conditions in the route, the Russian toll imposed for transiting the NSR, together with high insurance costs and scarce loading/unloading opportunities, limit the use of the NSR. We show that even if these obstacles are removed, the duration of the opening of the NSR over the course of the century is not long enough to offer a consequent boost to international trade at the macroeconomic level. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sami Bensassi Julienne C. Stroeve Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso Andrew P. Barrett |
author_facet |
Sami Bensassi Julienne C. Stroeve Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso Andrew P. Barrett |
author_sort |
Sami Bensassi |
title |
Melting ice, growing trade? |
title_short |
Melting ice, growing trade? |
title_full |
Melting ice, growing trade? |
title_fullStr |
Melting ice, growing trade? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Melting ice, growing trade? |
title_sort |
melting ice, growing trade? |
publisher |
BioOne |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.000107 https://doaj.org/article/46cd9e273ee4416ab06fa754b45d3865 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
op_source |
Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene (2016) |
op_relation |
2325-1026 doi:10.12952/journal.elementa.000107 https://doaj.org/article/46cd9e273ee4416ab06fa754b45d3865 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.000107 |
container_title |
Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene |
container_volume |
4 |
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1766321950658920448 |