Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model
The Greenland ice sheet has experienced significant melt over the past 6 decades, with extreme melt events covering large areas of the ice sheet. Melt events are typically analysed using summary statistics, but the nature and characteristics of the events themselves are less frequently analysed. Our...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:456feea1c8a7474eb5c43e825db53ea7 2023-05-15T16:27:59+02:00 Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model D. Clarkson E. Eastoe A. Leeson 2022-05-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/1597/2022/tc-16-1597-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/article/456feea1c8a7474eb5c43e825db53ea7 en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/1597/2022/tc-16-1597-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/article/456feea1c8a7474eb5c43e825db53ea7 undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 16, Pp 1597-1607 (2022) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2022 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022 2023-01-22T19:14:53Z The Greenland ice sheet has experienced significant melt over the past 6 decades, with extreme melt events covering large areas of the ice sheet. Melt events are typically analysed using summary statistics, but the nature and characteristics of the events themselves are less frequently analysed. Our work examines melt events from a statistical perspective by modelling 19 years of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ice surface temperature data using a Gaussian mixture model. We use a mixture model with separate model components for ice and meltwater temperatures at 1139 cells spaced across the ice sheet. By considering the uncertainty in the ice surface temperature measurements, we use the two categories of model components to define, for each observation, a probability of melt which is independent of any pre-defined fixed melt threshold. This probability can then be used to estimate the expected number of melt events at a given cell. Furthermore, the model can be used to estimate temperature quantiles at a given cell and analyse temperature and melt trends over time by fitting the model to subsets of time. Fitting the model to data from 2001–2009 and 2010–2019 shows increases in melt probability and yearly expected maximum temperatures for significant portions of the ice sheet. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Unknown Greenland The Cryosphere 16 5 1597 1607 |
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English |
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geo envir |
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geo envir D. Clarkson E. Eastoe A. Leeson Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
The Greenland ice sheet has experienced significant melt over the past 6 decades, with extreme melt events covering large areas of the ice sheet. Melt events are typically analysed using summary statistics, but the nature and characteristics of the events themselves are less frequently analysed. Our work examines melt events from a statistical perspective by modelling 19 years of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ice surface temperature data using a Gaussian mixture model. We use a mixture model with separate model components for ice and meltwater temperatures at 1139 cells spaced across the ice sheet. By considering the uncertainty in the ice surface temperature measurements, we use the two categories of model components to define, for each observation, a probability of melt which is independent of any pre-defined fixed melt threshold. This probability can then be used to estimate the expected number of melt events at a given cell. Furthermore, the model can be used to estimate temperature quantiles at a given cell and analyse temperature and melt trends over time by fitting the model to subsets of time. Fitting the model to data from 2001–2009 and 2010–2019 shows increases in melt probability and yearly expected maximum temperatures for significant portions of the ice sheet. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
D. Clarkson E. Eastoe A. Leeson |
author_facet |
D. Clarkson E. Eastoe A. Leeson |
author_sort |
D. Clarkson |
title |
Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model |
title_short |
Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model |
title_full |
Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model |
title_fullStr |
Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model |
title_sort |
melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the greenland ice sheet using a gaussian mixture model |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/1597/2022/tc-16-1597-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/article/456feea1c8a7474eb5c43e825db53ea7 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 16, Pp 1597-1607 (2022) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/1597/2022/tc-16-1597-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/article/456feea1c8a7474eb5c43e825db53ea7 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1597 |
op_container_end_page |
1607 |
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1766017593190121472 |