Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses
This paper revisits a widely cited study of the Boyne catchment in east Ireland that attributed greater streamflow from the mid-1970s to increased precipitation linked to a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Using the method of multiple working hypotheses we explore a wider set of potential dr...
Published in: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
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2014
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/1935/2014/hess-18-1935-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/450cb25d477342cc87b12d946b944984 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:450cb25d477342cc87b12d946b944984 2023-05-15T17:33:40+02:00 Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses S. Harrigan C. Murphy J. Hall R. L. Wilby J. Sweeney 2014-05-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/1935/2014/hess-18-1935-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/450cb25d477342cc87b12d946b944984 en eng Copernicus Publications 1027-5606 1607-7938 doi:10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/1935/2014/hess-18-1935-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/450cb25d477342cc87b12d946b944984 undefined Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 18, Iss 5, Pp 1935-1952 (2014) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2014 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014 2023-01-22T19:05:50Z This paper revisits a widely cited study of the Boyne catchment in east Ireland that attributed greater streamflow from the mid-1970s to increased precipitation linked to a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Using the method of multiple working hypotheses we explore a wider set of potential drivers of hydrological change. Rainfall–runoff models are used to reconstruct streamflow to isolate the effect of climate, taking account of both model structure and parameter uncertainty. The Mann–Kendall test for monotonic trend and Pettitt change point test are applied to explore signatures of change. Contrary to earlier work, arterial drainage and simultaneous onset of field drainage in the 1970s and early 1980s are now invoked as the predominant drivers of change in annual mean and high flows within the Boyne. However, a change in precipitation regime is also present in March, thereby amplifying the effect of drainage. This new explanation posits that multiple drivers acting simultaneously were responsible for the observed change, with the relative contribution of each driver dependant on the timescale investigated. This work demonstrates that valuable insights can be gained from a systematic application of the method of multiple working hypotheses in an effort to move towards more rigorous attribution, which is an important part of managing emerging impacts on hydrological systems. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Unknown Kendall ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18 5 1935 1952 |
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English |
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envir geo |
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envir geo S. Harrigan C. Murphy J. Hall R. L. Wilby J. Sweeney Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses |
topic_facet |
envir geo |
description |
This paper revisits a widely cited study of the Boyne catchment in east Ireland that attributed greater streamflow from the mid-1970s to increased precipitation linked to a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Using the method of multiple working hypotheses we explore a wider set of potential drivers of hydrological change. Rainfall–runoff models are used to reconstruct streamflow to isolate the effect of climate, taking account of both model structure and parameter uncertainty. The Mann–Kendall test for monotonic trend and Pettitt change point test are applied to explore signatures of change. Contrary to earlier work, arterial drainage and simultaneous onset of field drainage in the 1970s and early 1980s are now invoked as the predominant drivers of change in annual mean and high flows within the Boyne. However, a change in precipitation regime is also present in March, thereby amplifying the effect of drainage. This new explanation posits that multiple drivers acting simultaneously were responsible for the observed change, with the relative contribution of each driver dependant on the timescale investigated. This work demonstrates that valuable insights can be gained from a systematic application of the method of multiple working hypotheses in an effort to move towards more rigorous attribution, which is an important part of managing emerging impacts on hydrological systems. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. Harrigan C. Murphy J. Hall R. L. Wilby J. Sweeney |
author_facet |
S. Harrigan C. Murphy J. Hall R. L. Wilby J. Sweeney |
author_sort |
S. Harrigan |
title |
Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses |
title_short |
Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses |
title_full |
Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses |
title_fullStr |
Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses |
title_full_unstemmed |
Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses |
title_sort |
attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/1935/2014/hess-18-1935-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/450cb25d477342cc87b12d946b944984 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) |
geographic |
Kendall |
geographic_facet |
Kendall |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 18, Iss 5, Pp 1935-1952 (2014) |
op_relation |
1027-5606 1607-7938 doi:10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/1935/2014/hess-18-1935-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/450cb25d477342cc87b12d946b944984 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014 |
container_title |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1935 |
op_container_end_page |
1952 |
_version_ |
1766132247280222208 |