Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models

• Published in: The Cryosphere
• Main Authors: R. P. Daanen, T. Ingeman-Nielsen, S. S. Marchenko, V. E. Romanovsky, N. Foged, M. Stendel, J. H. Christensen, K. Hornbech Svendsen
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2011
• Subjects: geo; envir; Greenland; Ilulissat; Sisimiut; permafrost; The Cryosphere
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-1043-2011; http://www.the-cryosphere.net/5/1043/2011/tc-5-1043-2011.pdf; https://doaj.org/article/3d97b3fdf59446868384d91cc3ecce06

In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP), defined as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland, in agreement with present observations. We provide examples of application of the risk zone assessment approach for the two towns of Sisimiut and Ilulissat, both classified with high PTP.