Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades
In the Pacific Northwest, USA, the extraordinarily low snowpacks of winters 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 stressed regional water resources and the social-environmental system. We introduce two new approaches to better understand how seasonal snow water storage during these two winters would compare to sn...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:3256ef6679f74bf1ba91dcd4fad6aed6 2023-05-15T18:32:22+02:00 Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades E. A. Sproles T. R. Roth A. W. Nolin 2017-02-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-331-2017 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/331/2017/tc-11-331-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/article/3256ef6679f74bf1ba91dcd4fad6aed6 en eng Copernicus Publications 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-11-331-2017 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/331/2017/tc-11-331-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/article/3256ef6679f74bf1ba91dcd4fad6aed6 undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 331-341 (2017) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2017 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-331-2017 2023-01-22T18:02:44Z In the Pacific Northwest, USA, the extraordinarily low snowpacks of winters 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 stressed regional water resources and the social-environmental system. We introduce two new approaches to better understand how seasonal snow water storage during these two winters would compare to snow water storage under warmer climate conditions. The first approach calculates a spatial-probabilistic metric representing the likelihood that the snow water storage of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 would occur under +2 °C perturbed climate conditions. We computed snow water storage (basin-wide and across elevations) and the ratio of snow water equivalent to cumulative precipitation (across elevations) for the McKenzie River basin (3041 km2), a major tributary to the Willamette River in Oregon, USA. We applied these computations to calculate the occurrence probability for similarly low snow water storage under climate warming. Results suggest that, relative to +2 °C conditions, basin-wide snow water storage during winter 2013–2014 would be above average, while that of winter 2014–2015 would be far below average. Snow water storage on 1 April corresponds to a 42 % (2013–2014) and 92 % (2014–2015) probability of being met or exceeded in any given year. The second approach introduces the concept of snow analogs to improve the anticipatory capacity of climate change impacts on snow-derived water resources. The use of a spatial-probabilistic approach and snow analogs provide new methods of assessing basin-wide snow water storage in a non-stationary climate and are readily applicable in other snow-dominated watersheds. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Unknown Pacific The Cryosphere 11 1 331 341 |
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English |
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geo envir E. A. Sproles T. R. Roth A. W. Nolin Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
In the Pacific Northwest, USA, the extraordinarily low snowpacks of winters 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 stressed regional water resources and the social-environmental system. We introduce two new approaches to better understand how seasonal snow water storage during these two winters would compare to snow water storage under warmer climate conditions. The first approach calculates a spatial-probabilistic metric representing the likelihood that the snow water storage of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 would occur under +2 °C perturbed climate conditions. We computed snow water storage (basin-wide and across elevations) and the ratio of snow water equivalent to cumulative precipitation (across elevations) for the McKenzie River basin (3041 km2), a major tributary to the Willamette River in Oregon, USA. We applied these computations to calculate the occurrence probability for similarly low snow water storage under climate warming. Results suggest that, relative to +2 °C conditions, basin-wide snow water storage during winter 2013–2014 would be above average, while that of winter 2014–2015 would be far below average. Snow water storage on 1 April corresponds to a 42 % (2013–2014) and 92 % (2014–2015) probability of being met or exceeded in any given year. The second approach introduces the concept of snow analogs to improve the anticipatory capacity of climate change impacts on snow-derived water resources. The use of a spatial-probabilistic approach and snow analogs provide new methods of assessing basin-wide snow water storage in a non-stationary climate and are readily applicable in other snow-dominated watersheds. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. A. Sproles T. R. Roth A. W. Nolin |
author_facet |
E. A. Sproles T. R. Roth A. W. Nolin |
author_sort |
E. A. Sproles |
title |
Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades |
title_short |
Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades |
title_full |
Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades |
title_fullStr |
Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades |
title_sort |
future snow? a spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the oregon cascades |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-331-2017 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/331/2017/tc-11-331-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/article/3256ef6679f74bf1ba91dcd4fad6aed6 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 331-341 (2017) |
op_relation |
1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-11-331-2017 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/331/2017/tc-11-331-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/article/3256ef6679f74bf1ba91dcd4fad6aed6 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-331-2017 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
331 |
op_container_end_page |
341 |
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1766216478878597120 |