Intense Cyclones in the Black Sea Region: Change, Variability, Predictability and Manifestations in the Storm Activity
Cyclonic activity in the midlatitudes is a form of general atmospheric circulation, and the most intense cyclones are the cause of hydrometeorological anomalies that lead to economic damage, casualties and human losses. This paper examines the features of variability of intense cyclonic activity in...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:3065d614bc844b798a00f70382e2568e 2023-05-15T17:36:28+02:00 Intense Cyclones in the Black Sea Region: Change, Variability, Predictability and Manifestations in the Storm Activity Veronika N. Maslova Elena N. Voskresenskaya Andrey S. Lubkov Aleksandr V. Yurovsky Viktor Y. Zhuravskiy Vladislav P. Evstigneev 2020-06-01 https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114468 https://doaj.org/article/3065d614bc844b798a00f70382e2568e en eng MDPI AG doi:10.3390/su12114468 2071-1050 https://doaj.org/article/3065d614bc844b798a00f70382e2568e undefined Sustainability, Vol 12, Iss 4468, p 4468 (2020) deep cyclones climatology decadal–multidecadal variability interchange of cyclone anomalies coefficient of determination Fourier spectrum estimates artificial intelligence geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2020 fttriple https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114468 2023-01-22T19:12:08Z Cyclonic activity in the midlatitudes is a form of general atmospheric circulation, and the most intense cyclones are the cause of hydrometeorological anomalies that lead to economic damage, casualties and human losses. This paper examines the features of variability of intense cyclonic activity in the Black Sea region and the examples of their regional manifestations in the storm types. Based on 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data on 1000 hPa geopotential height fields with 2° × 2° spatial resolution and using the methodology by M.Yu. Bardin, objective data were obtained for the identification and estimation of the frequency of deep cyclones (reaching 0.75 and 0.95 quantiles by intensity and depth—intense and extreme cyclones, respectively) for the Black Sea region during the period 1951–2017. Additionally, a specific methodology of more precise cyclone identification based on spherical spline interpolation was successfully applied, and then the two methodologies were compared. The key point of the study is the following: In the background of negative significant linear trends and interdecadal variability (period of about 35 years), typical scales of their interannual variability on the periods of about 2.5–3.5 and 6–8 years were identified. These periods coincide with the time scales of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Nino–Southern Oscillation, providing an outlook for further study of the patterns of their connection. Besides, seasonal forecasts of frequency of intense cyclones in the Black Sea region were successfully modeled using an artificial neural network technique. Finally, the case studies of regional manifestations of deep cyclones in the types of storms in the northern Black Sea coast revealed substantial differences in the location of deep centers of cyclones and storm tracks associated with the large-scale pressure fields. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Unknown Sustainability 12 11 4468 |
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Open Polar |
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Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
deep cyclones climatology decadal–multidecadal variability interchange of cyclone anomalies coefficient of determination Fourier spectrum estimates artificial intelligence geo envir |
spellingShingle |
deep cyclones climatology decadal–multidecadal variability interchange of cyclone anomalies coefficient of determination Fourier spectrum estimates artificial intelligence geo envir Veronika N. Maslova Elena N. Voskresenskaya Andrey S. Lubkov Aleksandr V. Yurovsky Viktor Y. Zhuravskiy Vladislav P. Evstigneev Intense Cyclones in the Black Sea Region: Change, Variability, Predictability and Manifestations in the Storm Activity |
topic_facet |
deep cyclones climatology decadal–multidecadal variability interchange of cyclone anomalies coefficient of determination Fourier spectrum estimates artificial intelligence geo envir |
description |
Cyclonic activity in the midlatitudes is a form of general atmospheric circulation, and the most intense cyclones are the cause of hydrometeorological anomalies that lead to economic damage, casualties and human losses. This paper examines the features of variability of intense cyclonic activity in the Black Sea region and the examples of their regional manifestations in the storm types. Based on 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data on 1000 hPa geopotential height fields with 2° × 2° spatial resolution and using the methodology by M.Yu. Bardin, objective data were obtained for the identification and estimation of the frequency of deep cyclones (reaching 0.75 and 0.95 quantiles by intensity and depth—intense and extreme cyclones, respectively) for the Black Sea region during the period 1951–2017. Additionally, a specific methodology of more precise cyclone identification based on spherical spline interpolation was successfully applied, and then the two methodologies were compared. The key point of the study is the following: In the background of negative significant linear trends and interdecadal variability (period of about 35 years), typical scales of their interannual variability on the periods of about 2.5–3.5 and 6–8 years were identified. These periods coincide with the time scales of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Nino–Southern Oscillation, providing an outlook for further study of the patterns of their connection. Besides, seasonal forecasts of frequency of intense cyclones in the Black Sea region were successfully modeled using an artificial neural network technique. Finally, the case studies of regional manifestations of deep cyclones in the types of storms in the northern Black Sea coast revealed substantial differences in the location of deep centers of cyclones and storm tracks associated with the large-scale pressure fields. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Veronika N. Maslova Elena N. Voskresenskaya Andrey S. Lubkov Aleksandr V. Yurovsky Viktor Y. Zhuravskiy Vladislav P. Evstigneev |
author_facet |
Veronika N. Maslova Elena N. Voskresenskaya Andrey S. Lubkov Aleksandr V. Yurovsky Viktor Y. Zhuravskiy Vladislav P. Evstigneev |
author_sort |
Veronika N. Maslova |
title |
Intense Cyclones in the Black Sea Region: Change, Variability, Predictability and Manifestations in the Storm Activity |
title_short |
Intense Cyclones in the Black Sea Region: Change, Variability, Predictability and Manifestations in the Storm Activity |
title_full |
Intense Cyclones in the Black Sea Region: Change, Variability, Predictability and Manifestations in the Storm Activity |
title_fullStr |
Intense Cyclones in the Black Sea Region: Change, Variability, Predictability and Manifestations in the Storm Activity |
title_full_unstemmed |
Intense Cyclones in the Black Sea Region: Change, Variability, Predictability and Manifestations in the Storm Activity |
title_sort |
intense cyclones in the black sea region: change, variability, predictability and manifestations in the storm activity |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114468 https://doaj.org/article/3065d614bc844b798a00f70382e2568e |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Sustainability, Vol 12, Iss 4468, p 4468 (2020) |
op_relation |
doi:10.3390/su12114468 2071-1050 https://doaj.org/article/3065d614bc844b798a00f70382e2568e |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114468 |
container_title |
Sustainability |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
4468 |
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1766135951823732736 |