ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ic...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3033/2020/tc-14-3033-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/2e30e29db70c4a43b7f755af333da47b |
id |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:2e30e29db70c4a43b7f755af333da47b |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:2e30e29db70c4a43b7f755af333da47b 2023-05-15T13:39:15+02:00 ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century H. Seroussi S. Nowicki A. J. Payne H. Goelzer W. H. Lipscomb A. Abe-Ouchi C. Agosta T. Albrecht X. Asay-Davis A. Barthel R. Calov R. Cullather C. Dumas B. K. Galton-Fenzi R. Gladstone N. R. Golledge J. M. Gregory R. Greve T. Hattermann M. J. Hoffman A. Humbert P. Huybrechts N. C. Jourdain T. Kleiner E. Larour G. R. Leguy D. P. Lowry C. M. Little M. Morlighem F. Pattyn T. Pelle S. F. Price A. Quiquet R. Reese N.-J. Schlegel A. Shepherd E. Simon R. S. Smith F. Straneo S. Sun L. D. Trusel J. Van Breedam R. S. W. van de Wal R. Winkelmann C. Zhao T. Zhang T. Zwinger 2020-09-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3033/2020/tc-14-3033-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/2e30e29db70c4a43b7f755af333da47b en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3033/2020/tc-14-3033-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/2e30e29db70c4a43b7f755af333da47b undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 3033-3070 (2020) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2020 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 2023-01-22T18:03:28Z Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Unknown Antarctic East Antarctica The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere 14 9 3033 3070 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
geo envir |
spellingShingle |
geo envir H. Seroussi S. Nowicki A. J. Payne H. Goelzer W. H. Lipscomb A. Abe-Ouchi C. Agosta T. Albrecht X. Asay-Davis A. Barthel R. Calov R. Cullather C. Dumas B. K. Galton-Fenzi R. Gladstone N. R. Golledge J. M. Gregory R. Greve T. Hattermann M. J. Hoffman A. Humbert P. Huybrechts N. C. Jourdain T. Kleiner E. Larour G. R. Leguy D. P. Lowry C. M. Little M. Morlighem F. Pattyn T. Pelle S. F. Price A. Quiquet R. Reese N.-J. Schlegel A. Shepherd E. Simon R. S. Smith F. Straneo S. Sun L. D. Trusel J. Van Breedam R. S. W. van de Wal R. Winkelmann C. Zhao T. Zhang T. Zwinger ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
H. Seroussi S. Nowicki A. J. Payne H. Goelzer W. H. Lipscomb A. Abe-Ouchi C. Agosta T. Albrecht X. Asay-Davis A. Barthel R. Calov R. Cullather C. Dumas B. K. Galton-Fenzi R. Gladstone N. R. Golledge J. M. Gregory R. Greve T. Hattermann M. J. Hoffman A. Humbert P. Huybrechts N. C. Jourdain T. Kleiner E. Larour G. R. Leguy D. P. Lowry C. M. Little M. Morlighem F. Pattyn T. Pelle S. F. Price A. Quiquet R. Reese N.-J. Schlegel A. Shepherd E. Simon R. S. Smith F. Straneo S. Sun L. D. Trusel J. Van Breedam R. S. W. van de Wal R. Winkelmann C. Zhao T. Zhang T. Zwinger |
author_facet |
H. Seroussi S. Nowicki A. J. Payne H. Goelzer W. H. Lipscomb A. Abe-Ouchi C. Agosta T. Albrecht X. Asay-Davis A. Barthel R. Calov R. Cullather C. Dumas B. K. Galton-Fenzi R. Gladstone N. R. Golledge J. M. Gregory R. Greve T. Hattermann M. J. Hoffman A. Humbert P. Huybrechts N. C. Jourdain T. Kleiner E. Larour G. R. Leguy D. P. Lowry C. M. Little M. Morlighem F. Pattyn T. Pelle S. F. Price A. Quiquet R. Reese N.-J. Schlegel A. Shepherd E. Simon R. S. Smith F. Straneo S. Sun L. D. Trusel J. Van Breedam R. S. W. van de Wal R. Winkelmann C. Zhao T. Zhang T. Zwinger |
author_sort |
H. Seroussi |
title |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_short |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_full |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_sort |
ismip6 antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3033/2020/tc-14-3033-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/2e30e29db70c4a43b7f755af333da47b |
geographic |
Antarctic East Antarctica The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic East Antarctica The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 3033-3070 (2020) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3033/2020/tc-14-3033-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/2e30e29db70c4a43b7f755af333da47b |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
3033 |
op_container_end_page |
3070 |
_version_ |
1766116544682655744 |