Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya
In this study, we apply a glacier mass balance and ice redistribution model to examine the sensitivity of glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal to climate change. High-resolution temperature and precipitation fields derived from gridded station data, and bias-corrected with independent station obs...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:2b2614a47dcc4be4bfe609db268727b6 2023-05-15T18:32:21+02:00 Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya J. M. Shea W. W. Immerzeel P. Wagnon C. Vincent S. Bajracharya 2015-05-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1105-2015 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/1105/2015/tc-9-1105-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/2b2614a47dcc4be4bfe609db268727b6 en eng Copernicus Publications 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-9-1105-2015 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/1105/2015/tc-9-1105-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/2b2614a47dcc4be4bfe609db268727b6 undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 9, Iss 3, Pp 1105-1128 (2015) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2015 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1105-2015 2023-01-22T19:34:38Z In this study, we apply a glacier mass balance and ice redistribution model to examine the sensitivity of glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal to climate change. High-resolution temperature and precipitation fields derived from gridded station data, and bias-corrected with independent station observations, are used to drive the historical model from 1961 to 2007. The model is calibrated against geodetically derived estimates of net glacier mass change from 1992 to 2008, termini position of four large glaciers at the end of the calibration period, average velocities observed on selected debris-covered glaciers, and total glacierized area. We integrate field-based observations of glacier mass balance and ice thickness with remotely sensed observations of decadal glacier change to validate the model. Between 1961 and 2007, the mean modelled volume change over the Dudh Koshi basin is −6.4 ± 1.5 km3, a decrease of 15.6% from the original estimated ice volume in 1961. Modelled glacier area change between 1961 and 2007 is −101.0 ± 11.4 km2, a decrease of approximately 20% from the initial extent. The modelled glacier sensitivity to future climate change is high. Application of temperature and precipitation anomalies from warm/dry and wet/cold end-members of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 ensemble results in sustained mass loss from glaciers in the Everest region through the 21st century. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Unknown The Cryosphere 9 3 1105 1128 |
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English |
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geo envir J. M. Shea W. W. Immerzeel P. Wagnon C. Vincent S. Bajracharya Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
In this study, we apply a glacier mass balance and ice redistribution model to examine the sensitivity of glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal to climate change. High-resolution temperature and precipitation fields derived from gridded station data, and bias-corrected with independent station observations, are used to drive the historical model from 1961 to 2007. The model is calibrated against geodetically derived estimates of net glacier mass change from 1992 to 2008, termini position of four large glaciers at the end of the calibration period, average velocities observed on selected debris-covered glaciers, and total glacierized area. We integrate field-based observations of glacier mass balance and ice thickness with remotely sensed observations of decadal glacier change to validate the model. Between 1961 and 2007, the mean modelled volume change over the Dudh Koshi basin is −6.4 ± 1.5 km3, a decrease of 15.6% from the original estimated ice volume in 1961. Modelled glacier area change between 1961 and 2007 is −101.0 ± 11.4 km2, a decrease of approximately 20% from the initial extent. The modelled glacier sensitivity to future climate change is high. Application of temperature and precipitation anomalies from warm/dry and wet/cold end-members of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 ensemble results in sustained mass loss from glaciers in the Everest region through the 21st century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. M. Shea W. W. Immerzeel P. Wagnon C. Vincent S. Bajracharya |
author_facet |
J. M. Shea W. W. Immerzeel P. Wagnon C. Vincent S. Bajracharya |
author_sort |
J. M. Shea |
title |
Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya |
title_short |
Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya |
title_full |
Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya |
title_fullStr |
Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya |
title_sort |
modelling glacier change in the everest region, nepal himalaya |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1105-2015 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/1105/2015/tc-9-1105-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/2b2614a47dcc4be4bfe609db268727b6 |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 9, Iss 3, Pp 1105-1128 (2015) |
op_relation |
1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-9-1105-2015 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/1105/2015/tc-9-1105-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/article/2b2614a47dcc4be4bfe609db268727b6 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1105-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1105 |
op_container_end_page |
1128 |
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1766216453848039424 |