Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios
Abstract Identifying climate change hotspot regions is critical for planning effective mitigation and adaptation activities. We use standard Euclidean distance (SED) to calculate integrated changes in precipitation and temperature means, interannual variability, and extremes between different future...
Published in: | Earth's Future |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002027 https://doaj.org/article/26e9c86f59bb434c867dd422850eb06d |
id |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:26e9c86f59bb434c867dd422850eb06d |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:26e9c86f59bb434c867dd422850eb06d 2023-05-15T14:54:47+02:00 Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios Xuewei Fan Chiyuan Miao Qingyun Duan Chenwei Shen Yi Wu 2021-06-01 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002027 https://doaj.org/article/26e9c86f59bb434c867dd422850eb06d en eng Wiley 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2021EF002027 https://doaj.org/article/26e9c86f59bb434c867dd422850eb06d undefined Earth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp n/a-n/a (2021) CMIP6 climate change hotspot signal‐to‐noise ratio warming level envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2021 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002027 2023-01-22T19:15:18Z Abstract Identifying climate change hotspot regions is critical for planning effective mitigation and adaptation activities. We use standard Euclidean distance (SED) to calculate integrated changes in precipitation and temperature means, interannual variability, and extremes between different future warming levels and a baseline period (1995–2014) using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensemble. We find consistent hotspots in the Amazon, central and western Africa, Indonesia and the Tibetan Plateau at warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C for all scenarios explored; the Arctic, Central America and southern Africa emerge as hotspots at 4°C warming and at the end of the 21st century under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5. CMIP6 models show higher SED values than CMIP5, suggesting stronger aggregated effects of climate change under the new scenarios. Hotspot time of emergence (TOE) is further investigated; TOE is defined as the year when the climate change signal first exceeds the noise of natural variability in 21st century projections. The results indicate that TOEs for warming would occur over all primary hotspots, with the earliest occurring in the Arctic and Indonesia. For precipitation, TOEs occur before 2100 in the Arctic, the Tibetan Plateau and Central America. Results using a geographical detector model show that patterns of SED are shaped by extreme hot and dry occurrences at low‐to‐medium warming, while precipitation and temperature means and extreme precipitation occurrences are the dominant influences under the high emission scenario and at high warming levels. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Unknown Arctic Earth's Future 9 6 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
CMIP6 climate change hotspot signal‐to‐noise ratio warming level envir geo |
spellingShingle |
CMIP6 climate change hotspot signal‐to‐noise ratio warming level envir geo Xuewei Fan Chiyuan Miao Qingyun Duan Chenwei Shen Yi Wu Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios |
topic_facet |
CMIP6 climate change hotspot signal‐to‐noise ratio warming level envir geo |
description |
Abstract Identifying climate change hotspot regions is critical for planning effective mitigation and adaptation activities. We use standard Euclidean distance (SED) to calculate integrated changes in precipitation and temperature means, interannual variability, and extremes between different future warming levels and a baseline period (1995–2014) using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensemble. We find consistent hotspots in the Amazon, central and western Africa, Indonesia and the Tibetan Plateau at warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C for all scenarios explored; the Arctic, Central America and southern Africa emerge as hotspots at 4°C warming and at the end of the 21st century under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5. CMIP6 models show higher SED values than CMIP5, suggesting stronger aggregated effects of climate change under the new scenarios. Hotspot time of emergence (TOE) is further investigated; TOE is defined as the year when the climate change signal first exceeds the noise of natural variability in 21st century projections. The results indicate that TOEs for warming would occur over all primary hotspots, with the earliest occurring in the Arctic and Indonesia. For precipitation, TOEs occur before 2100 in the Arctic, the Tibetan Plateau and Central America. Results using a geographical detector model show that patterns of SED are shaped by extreme hot and dry occurrences at low‐to‐medium warming, while precipitation and temperature means and extreme precipitation occurrences are the dominant influences under the high emission scenario and at high warming levels. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Xuewei Fan Chiyuan Miao Qingyun Duan Chenwei Shen Yi Wu |
author_facet |
Xuewei Fan Chiyuan Miao Qingyun Duan Chenwei Shen Yi Wu |
author_sort |
Xuewei Fan |
title |
Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios |
title_short |
Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios |
title_full |
Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios |
title_sort |
future climate change hotspots under different 21st century warming scenarios |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002027 https://doaj.org/article/26e9c86f59bb434c867dd422850eb06d |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
Earth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp n/a-n/a (2021) |
op_relation |
2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2021EF002027 https://doaj.org/article/26e9c86f59bb434c867dd422850eb06d |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002027 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
6 |
_version_ |
1766326541671727104 |