Risk Assessment of Ship Navigation in the Northwest Passage: Historical and Projection
Shipping volumes in the Northwest Passage are likely to increase under climate change due to the distance advantage over traditional routes and the special strategic location of the Arctic. However, the harsh environment and poor channel conditions may pose a considerable risk to ship navigation. To...
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MDPI AG
2022
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/su14095591 https://doaj.org/article/2519fff8f2e646b58b7d41f5953a68c3 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:2519fff8f2e646b58b7d41f5953a68c3 2023-05-15T15:03:46+02:00 Risk Assessment of Ship Navigation in the Northwest Passage: Historical and Projection Chuya Wang Minghu Ding Yuande Yang Ting Wei Tingfeng Dou 2022-05-01 https://doi.org/10.3390/su14095591 https://doaj.org/article/2519fff8f2e646b58b7d41f5953a68c3 en eng MDPI AG doi:10.3390/su14095591 2071-1050 https://doaj.org/article/2519fff8f2e646b58b7d41f5953a68c3 undefined Sustainability, Vol 14, Iss 5591, p 5591 (2022) ship navigation climate change response Arctic Northwest Passage geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2022 fttriple https://doi.org/10.3390/su14095591 2023-01-22T19:32:27Z Shipping volumes in the Northwest Passage are likely to increase under climate change due to the distance advantage over traditional routes and the special strategic location of the Arctic. However, the harsh environment and poor channel conditions may pose a considerable risk to ship navigation. To ensure the safety of ships, understand the navigability of the route, and plan the sustainable use of the Northwest Passage, it is crucial to provide a quantitative risk assessment. Here, we present an analysis of several natural risks faced by ships in the Northwest Passage based on available datasets and use climate model simulations to project the navigability changes. The results showed that: (1) The sea-ice risk to ships in the Northwest Passage has been significantly reduced over the period 1979–2019, and the risk for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships has decreased more rapidly than for general open-water (OW) ships. The difference in ice-breaking capacity further affects the seaworthy season, with the second seaworthy month being August for OW ships and October for PC6 ships, in addition to the commonly best September. (2) Low visibility is a more common form of adverse weather than strong wind for navigation in the Northwest Passage, mainly on the northern route, although pilotage conditions appear to be improving in September. (3) According to the comprehensive risk map, the distribution of risk is dominated by sea ice. The southern route of the Northwest Passage is superior to the northern route in terms of both sea ice and weather conditions, but there is a risk of shallow water. (4) For the northern route, which has greater transport potential, projections suggest that the sea-ice risk will be steadily lower than any extreme light ice year observed historically whether for the ship class OW or PC6 by 2050, with an increase of 50–80 navigable days, and the navigable period could be from June to January of the following year for PC6 ships by 2100. Our results provide valuable information for ships planning to pass ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Northwest passage Sea ice Unknown Arctic Northwest Passage Sustainability 14 9 5591 |
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op_collection_id |
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language |
English |
topic |
ship navigation climate change response Arctic Northwest Passage geo envir |
spellingShingle |
ship navigation climate change response Arctic Northwest Passage geo envir Chuya Wang Minghu Ding Yuande Yang Ting Wei Tingfeng Dou Risk Assessment of Ship Navigation in the Northwest Passage: Historical and Projection |
topic_facet |
ship navigation climate change response Arctic Northwest Passage geo envir |
description |
Shipping volumes in the Northwest Passage are likely to increase under climate change due to the distance advantage over traditional routes and the special strategic location of the Arctic. However, the harsh environment and poor channel conditions may pose a considerable risk to ship navigation. To ensure the safety of ships, understand the navigability of the route, and plan the sustainable use of the Northwest Passage, it is crucial to provide a quantitative risk assessment. Here, we present an analysis of several natural risks faced by ships in the Northwest Passage based on available datasets and use climate model simulations to project the navigability changes. The results showed that: (1) The sea-ice risk to ships in the Northwest Passage has been significantly reduced over the period 1979–2019, and the risk for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships has decreased more rapidly than for general open-water (OW) ships. The difference in ice-breaking capacity further affects the seaworthy season, with the second seaworthy month being August for OW ships and October for PC6 ships, in addition to the commonly best September. (2) Low visibility is a more common form of adverse weather than strong wind for navigation in the Northwest Passage, mainly on the northern route, although pilotage conditions appear to be improving in September. (3) According to the comprehensive risk map, the distribution of risk is dominated by sea ice. The southern route of the Northwest Passage is superior to the northern route in terms of both sea ice and weather conditions, but there is a risk of shallow water. (4) For the northern route, which has greater transport potential, projections suggest that the sea-ice risk will be steadily lower than any extreme light ice year observed historically whether for the ship class OW or PC6 by 2050, with an increase of 50–80 navigable days, and the navigable period could be from June to January of the following year for PC6 ships by 2100. Our results provide valuable information for ships planning to pass ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chuya Wang Minghu Ding Yuande Yang Ting Wei Tingfeng Dou |
author_facet |
Chuya Wang Minghu Ding Yuande Yang Ting Wei Tingfeng Dou |
author_sort |
Chuya Wang |
title |
Risk Assessment of Ship Navigation in the Northwest Passage: Historical and Projection |
title_short |
Risk Assessment of Ship Navigation in the Northwest Passage: Historical and Projection |
title_full |
Risk Assessment of Ship Navigation in the Northwest Passage: Historical and Projection |
title_fullStr |
Risk Assessment of Ship Navigation in the Northwest Passage: Historical and Projection |
title_full_unstemmed |
Risk Assessment of Ship Navigation in the Northwest Passage: Historical and Projection |
title_sort |
risk assessment of ship navigation in the northwest passage: historical and projection |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su14095591 https://doaj.org/article/2519fff8f2e646b58b7d41f5953a68c3 |
geographic |
Arctic Northwest Passage |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Northwest Passage |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Northwest passage Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Northwest passage Sea ice |
op_source |
Sustainability, Vol 14, Iss 5591, p 5591 (2022) |
op_relation |
doi:10.3390/su14095591 2071-1050 https://doaj.org/article/2519fff8f2e646b58b7d41f5953a68c3 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su14095591 |
container_title |
Sustainability |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
5591 |
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1766335616371392512 |