Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line–plume model

• Published in: The Cryosphere
• Main Authors: J. Beckmann, M. Perrette, S. Beyer, R. Calov, M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2019
• Subjects: envir; geo; Greenland; glacier; Ice Sheet; The Cryosphere
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019; https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/2281/2019/tc-13-2281-2019.pdf; https://doaj.org/article/22b9aea8bfe84bbe903becc123dd00a8

In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced an accelerated mass loss, contributing to approximately 25 % of contemporary sea level rise (SLR). This mass loss is caused by increased surface melt over a large area of the ice sheet and by the thinning, retreat and acceleration of numerous Greenland outlet glaciers. The latter is likely connected to enhanced submarine melting that, in turn, can be explained by ocean warming and enhanced subglacial discharge. The mechanisms involved in submarine melting are not yet fully understood and are only simplistically incorporated in some models of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Here, we investigate the response of 12 representative Greenland outlet glaciers to atmospheric and oceanic warming using a coupled line–plume glacier–flow line model resolving one horizontal dimension. The model parameters have been tuned for individual outlet glaciers using present-day observational constraints. We then run the model from present to the year 2100, forcing the model with changes in surface mass balance and surface runoff from simulations with a regional climate model for the RCP8.5 scenario, and applying a linear ocean temperature warming with different rates of changes representing uncertainties in the CMIP5 model experiments for the same climate change scenario. We also use different initial temperature–salinity profiles obtained from direct measurements and from ocean reanalysis data. Using different combinations of submarine melting and calving parameters that reproduce the present-day state of the glaciers, we estimate uncertainties in the contribution to global SLR for individual glaciers. We also perform a sensitivity analysis of the three forcing factors (changes in surface mass balance, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge), which shows that the roles of the different forcing factors are diverse for individual glaciers. We find that changes in ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are of comparable importance for the cumulative contribution of all 12 ...