Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness
Arctic sea ice thickness distributions from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are evaluated against observations from submarines, aircraft and satellites. While it is encouraging that the mean thickness distributions fr...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Language: | English |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:22308bab4c104e7ab60e843ec35220a8 2023-05-15T14:39:37+02:00 Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness J. Stroeve A. Barrett M. Serreze A. Schweiger 2014-10-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1839-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1839/2014/tc-8-1839-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/22308bab4c104e7ab60e843ec35220a8 en eng Copernicus Publications 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-8-1839-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1839/2014/tc-8-1839-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/22308bab4c104e7ab60e843ec35220a8 undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 8, Iss 5, Pp 1839-1854 (2014) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2014 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1839-2014 2023-01-22T17:53:09Z Arctic sea ice thickness distributions from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are evaluated against observations from submarines, aircraft and satellites. While it is encouraging that the mean thickness distributions from the models are in general agreement with observations, the spatial patterns of sea ice thickness are poorly represented in most models. The poor spatial representation of thickness patterns is associated with a failure of models to represent details of the mean atmospheric circulation pattern that governs the transport and spatial distribution of sea ice. The climate models as a whole also tend to underestimate the rate of ice volume loss from 1979 to 2013, though the multimodel ensemble mean trend remains within the uncertainty of that from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System. Although large uncertainties in observational products complicate model evaluations, these results raise concerns regarding the ability of CMIP5 models to realistically represent the processes driving the decline of Arctic sea ice and to project the timing of when a seasonally ice-free Arctic may become a reality. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Unknown Arctic The Cryosphere 8 5 1839 1854 |
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English |
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geo envir J. Stroeve A. Barrett M. Serreze A. Schweiger Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
Arctic sea ice thickness distributions from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are evaluated against observations from submarines, aircraft and satellites. While it is encouraging that the mean thickness distributions from the models are in general agreement with observations, the spatial patterns of sea ice thickness are poorly represented in most models. The poor spatial representation of thickness patterns is associated with a failure of models to represent details of the mean atmospheric circulation pattern that governs the transport and spatial distribution of sea ice. The climate models as a whole also tend to underestimate the rate of ice volume loss from 1979 to 2013, though the multimodel ensemble mean trend remains within the uncertainty of that from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System. Although large uncertainties in observational products complicate model evaluations, these results raise concerns regarding the ability of CMIP5 models to realistically represent the processes driving the decline of Arctic sea ice and to project the timing of when a seasonally ice-free Arctic may become a reality. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. Stroeve A. Barrett M. Serreze A. Schweiger |
author_facet |
J. Stroeve A. Barrett M. Serreze A. Schweiger |
author_sort |
J. Stroeve |
title |
Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness |
title_short |
Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness |
title_full |
Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness |
title_fullStr |
Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness |
title_sort |
using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of arctic sea ice thickness |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1839-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1839/2014/tc-8-1839-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/22308bab4c104e7ab60e843ec35220a8 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 8, Iss 5, Pp 1839-1854 (2014) |
op_relation |
1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-8-1839-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1839/2014/tc-8-1839-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/22308bab4c104e7ab60e843ec35220a8 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1839-2014 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1839 |
op_container_end_page |
1854 |
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1766311584530956288 |