Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past
Many sources of uncertainty limit the accuracy of climate projections. Among them, we focus here on the parameter uncertainty, i.e. the imperfect knowledge of the values of many physical parameters in a climate model. Therefore, we use LOVECLIM, a global three-dimensional Earth system model of inter...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:213276380465444e87651c211fe3295d 2023-05-15T17:36:14+02:00 Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past M. F. Loutre A. Mouchet T. Fichefet H. Goosse H. Goelzer P. Huybrechts 2011-05-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-511-2011 http://www.clim-past.net/7/511/2011/cp-7-511-2011.pdf https://doaj.org/article/213276380465444e87651c211fe3295d en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/cp-7-511-2011 1814-9324 1814-9332 http://www.clim-past.net/7/511/2011/cp-7-511-2011.pdf https://doaj.org/article/213276380465444e87651c211fe3295d undefined Climate of the Past, Vol 7, Iss 2, Pp 511-526 (2011) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2011 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-511-2011 2023-01-22T17:32:53Z Many sources of uncertainty limit the accuracy of climate projections. Among them, we focus here on the parameter uncertainty, i.e. the imperfect knowledge of the values of many physical parameters in a climate model. Therefore, we use LOVECLIM, a global three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity and vary several parameters within a range based on the expert judgement of model developers. Nine climatic parameter sets and three carbon cycle parameter sets are selected because they yield present-day climate simulations coherent with observations and they cover a wide range of climate responses to doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration and freshwater flux perturbation in the North Atlantic. Moreover, they also lead to a large range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in response to prescribed emissions. Consequently, we have at our disposal 27 alternative versions of LOVECLIM (each corresponding to one parameter set) that provide very different responses to some climate forcings. The 27 model versions are then used to illustrate the range of responses provided over the recent past, to compare the time evolution of climate variables over the time interval for which they are available (the last few decades up to more than one century) and to identify the outliers and the "best" versions over that particular time span. For example, between 1979 and 2005, the simulated global annual mean surface temperature increase ranges from 0.24 °C to 0.64 °C, while the simulated increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration varies between 40 and 50 ppmv. Measurements over the same period indicate an increase in global annual mean surface temperature of 0.45 °C (Brohan et al., 2006) and an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration of 44 ppmv (Enting et al., 1994; GLOBALVIEW-CO2, 2006). Only a few parameter sets yield simulations that reproduce the observed key variables of the climate system over the last decades. Furthermore, our results show that the model response, including its ocean component, is strongly ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Unknown Climate of the Past 7 2 511 526 |
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envir geo M. F. Loutre A. Mouchet T. Fichefet H. Goosse H. Goelzer P. Huybrechts Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past |
topic_facet |
envir geo |
description |
Many sources of uncertainty limit the accuracy of climate projections. Among them, we focus here on the parameter uncertainty, i.e. the imperfect knowledge of the values of many physical parameters in a climate model. Therefore, we use LOVECLIM, a global three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity and vary several parameters within a range based on the expert judgement of model developers. Nine climatic parameter sets and three carbon cycle parameter sets are selected because they yield present-day climate simulations coherent with observations and they cover a wide range of climate responses to doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration and freshwater flux perturbation in the North Atlantic. Moreover, they also lead to a large range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in response to prescribed emissions. Consequently, we have at our disposal 27 alternative versions of LOVECLIM (each corresponding to one parameter set) that provide very different responses to some climate forcings. The 27 model versions are then used to illustrate the range of responses provided over the recent past, to compare the time evolution of climate variables over the time interval for which they are available (the last few decades up to more than one century) and to identify the outliers and the "best" versions over that particular time span. For example, between 1979 and 2005, the simulated global annual mean surface temperature increase ranges from 0.24 °C to 0.64 °C, while the simulated increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration varies between 40 and 50 ppmv. Measurements over the same period indicate an increase in global annual mean surface temperature of 0.45 °C (Brohan et al., 2006) and an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration of 44 ppmv (Enting et al., 1994; GLOBALVIEW-CO2, 2006). Only a few parameter sets yield simulations that reproduce the observed key variables of the climate system over the last decades. Furthermore, our results show that the model response, including its ocean component, is strongly ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. F. Loutre A. Mouchet T. Fichefet H. Goosse H. Goelzer P. Huybrechts |
author_facet |
M. F. Loutre A. Mouchet T. Fichefet H. Goosse H. Goelzer P. Huybrechts |
author_sort |
M. F. Loutre |
title |
Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past |
title_short |
Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past |
title_full |
Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past |
title_sort |
evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-511-2011 http://www.clim-past.net/7/511/2011/cp-7-511-2011.pdf https://doaj.org/article/213276380465444e87651c211fe3295d |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 7, Iss 2, Pp 511-526 (2011) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/cp-7-511-2011 1814-9324 1814-9332 http://www.clim-past.net/7/511/2011/cp-7-511-2011.pdf https://doaj.org/article/213276380465444e87651c211fe3295d |
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undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-511-2011 |
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Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
511 |
op_container_end_page |
526 |
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