Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison
This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which w...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Language: | English |
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2020
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/445/2020/tc-14-445-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/201c979a0eb74d5a9856ced762d1fa32 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:201c979a0eb74d5a9856ced762d1fa32 2023-05-15T14:56:10+02:00 Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison C. G. Andresen D. M. Lawrence C. J. Wilson A. D. McGuire C. Koven K. Schaefer E. Jafarov S. Peng X. Chen I. Gouttevin E. Burke S. Chadburn D. Ji G. Chen D. Hayes W. Zhang 2020-02-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/445/2020/tc-14-445-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/201c979a0eb74d5a9856ced762d1fa32 en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/445/2020/tc-14-445-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/201c979a0eb74d5a9856ced762d1fa32 undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 445-459 (2020) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2020 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 2023-01-22T19:07:16Z This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0–20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air–surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land–atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic permafrost The Cryosphere Unknown Arctic The Cryosphere 14 2 445 459 |
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Open Polar |
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fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
geo envir |
spellingShingle |
geo envir C. G. Andresen D. M. Lawrence C. J. Wilson A. D. McGuire C. Koven K. Schaefer E. Jafarov S. Peng X. Chen I. Gouttevin E. Burke S. Chadburn D. Ji G. Chen D. Hayes W. Zhang Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0–20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air–surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land–atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
C. G. Andresen D. M. Lawrence C. J. Wilson A. D. McGuire C. Koven K. Schaefer E. Jafarov S. Peng X. Chen I. Gouttevin E. Burke S. Chadburn D. Ji G. Chen D. Hayes W. Zhang |
author_facet |
C. G. Andresen D. M. Lawrence C. J. Wilson A. D. McGuire C. Koven K. Schaefer E. Jafarov S. Peng X. Chen I. Gouttevin E. Burke S. Chadburn D. Ji G. Chen D. Hayes W. Zhang |
author_sort |
C. G. Andresen |
title |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison |
title_short |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison |
title_full |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison |
title_fullStr |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison |
title_full_unstemmed |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison |
title_sort |
soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/445/2020/tc-14-445-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/201c979a0eb74d5a9856ced762d1fa32 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic permafrost The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic permafrost The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 445-459 (2020) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/445/2020/tc-14-445-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/article/201c979a0eb74d5a9856ced762d1fa32 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
445 |
op_container_end_page |
459 |
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1766328198820265984 |