Robust uncertainty assessment of the spatio-temporal transferability of glacier mass and energy balance models
Energy and mass-balance modelling of glaciers is a key tool for climate impact studies of future glacier behaviour. By incorporating many of the physical processes responsible for surface accumulation and ablation, they offer more insight than simpler statistical models and are believed to suffer le...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/469/2019/tc-13-469-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1d7cb95525b5493ca265393982b9592d |
id |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:1d7cb95525b5493ca265393982b9592d |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:1d7cb95525b5493ca265393982b9592d 2023-05-15T18:32:17+02:00 Robust uncertainty assessment of the spatio-temporal transferability of glacier mass and energy balance models T. Zolles F. Maussion S. P. Galos W. Gurgiser L. Nicholson 2019-02-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/469/2019/tc-13-469-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1d7cb95525b5493ca265393982b9592d en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-13-469-2019 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/469/2019/tc-13-469-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1d7cb95525b5493ca265393982b9592d undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 13, Pp 469-489 (2019) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2019 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019 2023-01-22T19:16:16Z Energy and mass-balance modelling of glaciers is a key tool for climate impact studies of future glacier behaviour. By incorporating many of the physical processes responsible for surface accumulation and ablation, they offer more insight than simpler statistical models and are believed to suffer less from problems of stationarity when applied under changing climate conditions. However, this view is challenged by the widespread use of parameterizations for some physical processes which introduces a statistical calibration step. We argue that the reported uncertainty in modelled mass balance (and associated energy flux components) are likely to be understated in modelling studies that do not use spatio-temporal cross-validation and use a single performance measure for model optimization. To demonstrate the importance of these principles, we present a rigorous sensitivity and uncertainty assessment workflow applied to a modelling study of two glaciers in the European Alps, extending classical best guess approaches. The procedure begins with a reduction of the model parameter space using a global sensitivity assessment that identifies the parameters to which the model responds most sensitively. We find that the model sensitivity to individual parameters varies considerably in space and time, indicating that a single stated model sensitivity value is unlikely to be realistic. The model is most sensitive to parameters related to snow albedo and vertical gradients of the meteorological forcing data. We then apply a Monte Carlo multi-objective optimization based on three performance measures: model bias and mean absolute deviation in the upper and lower glacier parts, with glaciological mass balance data measured at individual stake locations used as reference. This procedure generates an ensemble of optimal parameter solutions which are equally valid. The range of parameters associated with these ensemble members are used to estimate the cross-validated uncertainty of the model output and computed energy components. ... Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Unknown The Cryosphere 13 2 469 489 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
geo envir |
spellingShingle |
geo envir T. Zolles F. Maussion S. P. Galos W. Gurgiser L. Nicholson Robust uncertainty assessment of the spatio-temporal transferability of glacier mass and energy balance models |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
Energy and mass-balance modelling of glaciers is a key tool for climate impact studies of future glacier behaviour. By incorporating many of the physical processes responsible for surface accumulation and ablation, they offer more insight than simpler statistical models and are believed to suffer less from problems of stationarity when applied under changing climate conditions. However, this view is challenged by the widespread use of parameterizations for some physical processes which introduces a statistical calibration step. We argue that the reported uncertainty in modelled mass balance (and associated energy flux components) are likely to be understated in modelling studies that do not use spatio-temporal cross-validation and use a single performance measure for model optimization. To demonstrate the importance of these principles, we present a rigorous sensitivity and uncertainty assessment workflow applied to a modelling study of two glaciers in the European Alps, extending classical best guess approaches. The procedure begins with a reduction of the model parameter space using a global sensitivity assessment that identifies the parameters to which the model responds most sensitively. We find that the model sensitivity to individual parameters varies considerably in space and time, indicating that a single stated model sensitivity value is unlikely to be realistic. The model is most sensitive to parameters related to snow albedo and vertical gradients of the meteorological forcing data. We then apply a Monte Carlo multi-objective optimization based on three performance measures: model bias and mean absolute deviation in the upper and lower glacier parts, with glaciological mass balance data measured at individual stake locations used as reference. This procedure generates an ensemble of optimal parameter solutions which are equally valid. The range of parameters associated with these ensemble members are used to estimate the cross-validated uncertainty of the model output and computed energy components. ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
T. Zolles F. Maussion S. P. Galos W. Gurgiser L. Nicholson |
author_facet |
T. Zolles F. Maussion S. P. Galos W. Gurgiser L. Nicholson |
author_sort |
T. Zolles |
title |
Robust uncertainty assessment of the spatio-temporal transferability of glacier mass and energy balance models |
title_short |
Robust uncertainty assessment of the spatio-temporal transferability of glacier mass and energy balance models |
title_full |
Robust uncertainty assessment of the spatio-temporal transferability of glacier mass and energy balance models |
title_fullStr |
Robust uncertainty assessment of the spatio-temporal transferability of glacier mass and energy balance models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Robust uncertainty assessment of the spatio-temporal transferability of glacier mass and energy balance models |
title_sort |
robust uncertainty assessment of the spatio-temporal transferability of glacier mass and energy balance models |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/469/2019/tc-13-469-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1d7cb95525b5493ca265393982b9592d |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 13, Pp 469-489 (2019) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-13-469-2019 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/469/2019/tc-13-469-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1d7cb95525b5493ca265393982b9592d |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
469 |
op_container_end_page |
489 |
_version_ |
1766216394088644608 |