Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods
Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including the adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modelling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we introduce results obtained t...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2014
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1673/2014/tc-8-1673-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1ac7b3a2c14a483dbd7c44c6c26fcebc |
id |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:1ac7b3a2c14a483dbd7c44c6c26fcebc |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:1ac7b3a2c14a483dbd7c44c6c26fcebc 2023-05-15T18:32:22+02:00 Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods H. Castebrunet N. Eckert G. Giraud Y. Durand S. Morin 2014-09-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1673/2014/tc-8-1673-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1ac7b3a2c14a483dbd7c44c6c26fcebc en eng Copernicus Publications 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1673/2014/tc-8-1673-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1ac7b3a2c14a483dbd7c44c6c26fcebc undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 8, Iss 5, Pp 1673-1697 (2014) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2014 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014 2023-01-22T19:32:25Z Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including the adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modelling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we introduce results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions including mechanical stability estimates for the mid and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided in comparison to a 1960–1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model relating avalanche activity to snow and meteorological conditions, so as to produce the first projection on annual/seasonal timescales of future natural avalanche activity based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of anticipation of changes. Whereas precipitation is expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will constrain the evolution of snow-related variables on all considered spatio-temporal scales and will, in particular, lead to a reduction of the dry snowpack and an increase of the wet snowpack. Overall, compared to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid century. Changes in winter are less important than in spring, but wet-snow conditions are projected to appear at high elevations earlier in the season. At the same altitude, the southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the northern French Alps, which means that the snowpack will be preserved for longer in the southern massifs which are higher on average. Regarding avalanche activity, a general decrease in mean (20–30%) and interannual variability is projected. These changes are relatively strong ... Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Unknown The Cryosphere 8 5 1673 1697 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
geo envir |
spellingShingle |
geo envir H. Castebrunet N. Eckert G. Giraud Y. Durand S. Morin Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including the adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modelling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we introduce results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions including mechanical stability estimates for the mid and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided in comparison to a 1960–1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model relating avalanche activity to snow and meteorological conditions, so as to produce the first projection on annual/seasonal timescales of future natural avalanche activity based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of anticipation of changes. Whereas precipitation is expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will constrain the evolution of snow-related variables on all considered spatio-temporal scales and will, in particular, lead to a reduction of the dry snowpack and an increase of the wet snowpack. Overall, compared to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid century. Changes in winter are less important than in spring, but wet-snow conditions are projected to appear at high elevations earlier in the season. At the same altitude, the southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the northern French Alps, which means that the snowpack will be preserved for longer in the southern massifs which are higher on average. Regarding avalanche activity, a general decrease in mean (20–30%) and interannual variability is projected. These changes are relatively strong ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
H. Castebrunet N. Eckert G. Giraud Y. Durand S. Morin |
author_facet |
H. Castebrunet N. Eckert G. Giraud Y. Durand S. Morin |
author_sort |
H. Castebrunet |
title |
Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods |
title_short |
Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods |
title_full |
Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods |
title_fullStr |
Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods |
title_sort |
projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the french alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1673/2014/tc-8-1673-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1ac7b3a2c14a483dbd7c44c6c26fcebc |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 8, Iss 5, Pp 1673-1697 (2014) |
op_relation |
1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1673/2014/tc-8-1673-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1ac7b3a2c14a483dbd7c44c6c26fcebc |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1673 |
op_container_end_page |
1697 |
_version_ |
1766216477320413184 |