How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?
This paper presents an investigation of the robustness of correlations between characteristics of Arctic summer cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from 100-year coupled climate model simulations at two resolutions and for 3...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2017
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/3023/2017/tc-11-3023-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1a282a831e3f44d58bd9f646c90024de |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:1a282a831e3f44d58bd9f646c90024de 2023-05-15T14:47:47+02:00 How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? J. G. L. Rae A. D. Todd E. W. Blockley J. K. Ridley 2017-12-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/3023/2017/tc-11-3023-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1a282a831e3f44d58bd9f646c90024de en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/3023/2017/tc-11-3023-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1a282a831e3f44d58bd9f646c90024de undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 11, Pp 3023-3034 (2017) geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2017 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 2023-01-22T18:19:17Z This paper presents an investigation of the robustness of correlations between characteristics of Arctic summer cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from 100-year coupled climate model simulations at two resolutions and for 30 years of reanalysis data, using two different tracking variables (mean sea-level pressure, MSLP; and 850 hPa vorticity) for identification of the cyclones. The influence of the tracking variable, the spatial resolution of the model, and spatial and temporal sampling on the correlations is then explored. We conclude that the correlations obtained depend on all of these factors and that care should be taken when interpreting the results of such analyses. Previous studies of this type have used around 30 years of reanalysis and observational data, analysed with a single tracking variable. Our results therefore cast some doubt on the conclusions drawn in those studies. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Unknown Arctic The Cryosphere 11 6 3023 3034 |
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English |
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geo envir |
spellingShingle |
geo envir J. G. L. Rae A. D. Todd E. W. Blockley J. K. Ridley How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
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geo envir |
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This paper presents an investigation of the robustness of correlations between characteristics of Arctic summer cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from 100-year coupled climate model simulations at two resolutions and for 30 years of reanalysis data, using two different tracking variables (mean sea-level pressure, MSLP; and 850 hPa vorticity) for identification of the cyclones. The influence of the tracking variable, the spatial resolution of the model, and spatial and temporal sampling on the correlations is then explored. We conclude that the correlations obtained depend on all of these factors and that care should be taken when interpreting the results of such analyses. Previous studies of this type have used around 30 years of reanalysis and observational data, analysed with a single tracking variable. Our results therefore cast some doubt on the conclusions drawn in those studies. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. G. L. Rae A. D. Todd E. W. Blockley J. K. Ridley |
author_facet |
J. G. L. Rae A. D. Todd E. W. Blockley J. K. Ridley |
author_sort |
J. G. L. Rae |
title |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_short |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_full |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_fullStr |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_full_unstemmed |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_sort |
how much should we believe correlations between arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/3023/2017/tc-11-3023-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1a282a831e3f44d58bd9f646c90024de |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 11, Pp 3023-3034 (2017) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/3023/2017/tc-11-3023-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1a282a831e3f44d58bd9f646c90024de |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
3023 |
op_container_end_page |
3034 |
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1766318862425391104 |