Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet
We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sh...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2014
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/195/2014/tc-8-195-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1366a464f2d34f738e2faee63d17315e |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:1366a464f2d34f738e2faee63d17315e 2023-05-15T16:28:32+02:00 Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet T. L. Edwards X. Fettweis O. Gagliardini F. Gillet-Chaulet H. Goelzer J. M. Gregory M. Hoffman P. Huybrechts A. J. Payne M. Perego S. Price A. Quiquet C. Ritz 2014-01-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/195/2014/tc-8-195-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1366a464f2d34f738e2faee63d17315e en eng Copernicus Publications 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/195/2014/tc-8-195-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1366a464f2d34f738e2faee63d17315e undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 195-208 (2014) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2014 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 2023-01-22T17:58:05Z We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB–elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9%) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0%) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the "no feedback" case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Unknown Greenland The Cryosphere 8 1 195 208 |
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Open Polar |
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language |
English |
topic |
envir geo |
spellingShingle |
envir geo T. L. Edwards X. Fettweis O. Gagliardini F. Gillet-Chaulet H. Goelzer J. M. Gregory M. Hoffman P. Huybrechts A. J. Payne M. Perego S. Price A. Quiquet C. Ritz Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet |
topic_facet |
envir geo |
description |
We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB–elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9%) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0%) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the "no feedback" case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
T. L. Edwards X. Fettweis O. Gagliardini F. Gillet-Chaulet H. Goelzer J. M. Gregory M. Hoffman P. Huybrechts A. J. Payne M. Perego S. Price A. Quiquet C. Ritz |
author_facet |
T. L. Edwards X. Fettweis O. Gagliardini F. Gillet-Chaulet H. Goelzer J. M. Gregory M. Hoffman P. Huybrechts A. J. Payne M. Perego S. Price A. Quiquet C. Ritz |
author_sort |
T. L. Edwards |
title |
Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_short |
Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full |
Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_fullStr |
Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_sort |
effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the greenland ice sheet |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/195/2014/tc-8-195-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1366a464f2d34f738e2faee63d17315e |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 195-208 (2014) |
op_relation |
1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/195/2014/tc-8-195-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/article/1366a464f2d34f738e2faee63d17315e |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
195 |
op_container_end_page |
208 |
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1766018189080133632 |