Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models
Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a majo...
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Copernicus Publications
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3287/2018/tc-12-3287-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/00c54314280444569b6e6107b3fa8071 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:00c54314280444569b6e6107b3fa8071 2023-05-15T16:25:15+02:00 Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models E. Hanna X. Fettweis R. J. Hall 2018-10-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3287/2018/tc-12-3287-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/00c54314280444569b6e6107b3fa8071 en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3287/2018/tc-12-3287-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/00c54314280444569b6e6107b3fa8071 undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 3287-3292 (2018) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2018 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 2023-01-22T19:15:57Z Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a major driver of recent surface melt records observed on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Here we compare reanalysis-based GBI records with those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) suite of global climate models over 1950–2100. We find that the recent summer GBI increase lies well outside the range of modelled past reconstructions and future GBI projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The models consistently project a future decrease in GBI (linked to an increase in NAO), which highlights a likely key deficiency of current climate models if the recently observed circulation changes continue to persist. Given well-established connections between atmospheric pressure over the Greenland region and air temperature and precipitation extremes downstream, e.g. over northwest Europe, this brings into question the accuracy of simulated North Atlantic jet stream changes and resulting climatological anomalies over densely populated regions of northern Europe as well as of future projections of GrIS mass balance produced using global and regional climate models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation The Cryosphere Unknown Greenland The Cryosphere 12 10 3287 3292 |
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envir geo E. Hanna X. Fettweis R. J. Hall Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
topic_facet |
envir geo |
description |
Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a major driver of recent surface melt records observed on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Here we compare reanalysis-based GBI records with those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) suite of global climate models over 1950–2100. We find that the recent summer GBI increase lies well outside the range of modelled past reconstructions and future GBI projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The models consistently project a future decrease in GBI (linked to an increase in NAO), which highlights a likely key deficiency of current climate models if the recently observed circulation changes continue to persist. Given well-established connections between atmospheric pressure over the Greenland region and air temperature and precipitation extremes downstream, e.g. over northwest Europe, this brings into question the accuracy of simulated North Atlantic jet stream changes and resulting climatological anomalies over densely populated regions of northern Europe as well as of future projections of GrIS mass balance produced using global and regional climate models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. Hanna X. Fettweis R. J. Hall |
author_facet |
E. Hanna X. Fettweis R. J. Hall |
author_sort |
E. Hanna |
title |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_short |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_full |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_fullStr |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_sort |
brief communication: recent changes in summer greenland blocking captured by none of the cmip5 models |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3287/2018/tc-12-3287-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/00c54314280444569b6e6107b3fa8071 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 3287-3292 (2018) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3287/2018/tc-12-3287-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/article/00c54314280444569b6e6107b3fa8071 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
3287 |
op_container_end_page |
3292 |
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