Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble
We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions a...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:km4fSKF0AavRv1Htiy3d4 2023-05-15T17:33:02+02:00 Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. 2018-09-27 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/2471/2013/ en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 10670/1.7pgsor 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/2471/2013/ undefined Geographica Helvetica - geography eISSN: 1814-9332 geo envir Text https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_18cf/ Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2018 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 2023-01-22T17:52:40Z We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions are compatible realizations of the unknown past climate evolution. A lack of consistency is diagnosed in surface air temperature data for the Pacific, European and North Atlantic regions. On the other hand, indications are found that temperature signals partially agree in the western tropical Pacific, the subtropical North Pacific and the South Atlantic. Deviations from consistency may change between sub-periods, and they may include pronounced opposite biases in different sub-periods. These distributional inconsistencies originate mainly from differences in multi-centennial to millennial trends. Since the data uncertainties are only weakly constrained, the frequently too wide ensemble distributions prevent the formal rejection of consistency of the simulation ensemble. The presented multi-model ensemble consistency assessment gives results very similar to a previously discussed single-model ensemble suggesting that structural and parametric uncertainties do not exceed forcing and internal variability uncertainties. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Unknown Pacific Climate of the Past 9 6 2471 2487 |
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geo envir Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
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geo envir |
description |
We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions are compatible realizations of the unknown past climate evolution. A lack of consistency is diagnosed in surface air temperature data for the Pacific, European and North Atlantic regions. On the other hand, indications are found that temperature signals partially agree in the western tropical Pacific, the subtropical North Pacific and the South Atlantic. Deviations from consistency may change between sub-periods, and they may include pronounced opposite biases in different sub-periods. These distributional inconsistencies originate mainly from differences in multi-centennial to millennial trends. Since the data uncertainties are only weakly constrained, the frequently too wide ensemble distributions prevent the formal rejection of consistency of the simulation ensemble. The presented multi-model ensemble consistency assessment gives results very similar to a previously discussed single-model ensemble suggesting that structural and parametric uncertainties do not exceed forcing and internal variability uncertainties. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. |
author_facet |
Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. |
author_sort |
Bothe, O. |
title |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_short |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_full |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_sort |
consistency of the multi-model cmip5/pmip3-past1000 ensemble |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/2471/2013/ |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geographica Helvetica - geography eISSN: 1814-9332 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 10670/1.7pgsor 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/2471/2013/ |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2471 |
op_container_end_page |
2487 |
_version_ |
1766131386287128576 |