Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?
We investigate the consistency of various ensembles of climate model simulations with the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) sea surface temperature data synthesis. We discover that while two multi-model ensembles, created through the Paleoclimate Model I...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:M_vReyoZevLHwwFwhqByX 2023-05-15T17:33:07+02:00 Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis? Hargreaves, J. C. Paul, A. Ohgaito, R. Abe-Ouchi, A. Annan, J. D. 2018-09-27 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-917-2011 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/7/917/2011/ en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011 10670/1.ju79ka 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/7/917/2011/ undefined Geographica Helvetica - geography eISSN: 1814-9332 geo envir Text https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_18cf/ Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2018 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-917-2011 2023-01-22T17:39:28Z We investigate the consistency of various ensembles of climate model simulations with the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) sea surface temperature data synthesis. We discover that while two multi-model ensembles, created through the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Projects (PMIP and PMIP2), pass our simple tests of reliability, an ensemble based on parameter variation in a single model does not perform so well. We show that accounting for observational uncertainty in the MARGO database is of prime importance for correctly evaluating the ensembles. Perhaps surprisingly, the inclusion of a coupled dynamical ocean (compared to the use of a slab ocean) does not appear to cause a wider spread in the sea surface temperature anomalies, but rather causes systematic changes with more heat transported north in the Atlantic. There is weak evidence that the sea surface temperature data may be more consistent with meridional overturning in the North Atlantic being similar for the LGM and the present day. However, the small size of the PMIP2 ensemble prevents any statistically significant results from being obtained. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Unknown Climate of the Past 7 3 917 933 |
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geo envir Hargreaves, J. C. Paul, A. Ohgaito, R. Abe-Ouchi, A. Annan, J. D. Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis? |
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We investigate the consistency of various ensembles of climate model simulations with the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) sea surface temperature data synthesis. We discover that while two multi-model ensembles, created through the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Projects (PMIP and PMIP2), pass our simple tests of reliability, an ensemble based on parameter variation in a single model does not perform so well. We show that accounting for observational uncertainty in the MARGO database is of prime importance for correctly evaluating the ensembles. Perhaps surprisingly, the inclusion of a coupled dynamical ocean (compared to the use of a slab ocean) does not appear to cause a wider spread in the sea surface temperature anomalies, but rather causes systematic changes with more heat transported north in the Atlantic. There is weak evidence that the sea surface temperature data may be more consistent with meridional overturning in the North Atlantic being similar for the LGM and the present day. However, the small size of the PMIP2 ensemble prevents any statistically significant results from being obtained. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hargreaves, J. C. Paul, A. Ohgaito, R. Abe-Ouchi, A. Annan, J. D. |
author_facet |
Hargreaves, J. C. Paul, A. Ohgaito, R. Abe-Ouchi, A. Annan, J. D. |
author_sort |
Hargreaves, J. C. |
title |
Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis? |
title_short |
Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis? |
title_full |
Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis? |
title_fullStr |
Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis? |
title_sort |
are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the margo data synthesis? |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-917-2011 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/7/917/2011/ |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geographica Helvetica - geography eISSN: 1814-9332 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011 10670/1.ju79ka 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/7/917/2011/ |
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undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-917-2011 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
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7 |
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3 |
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917 |
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933 |
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1766131508430503936 |