Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1
1. Phenological changes have been observed in a variety of systems over the past century. There is concern that, as a consequence, ecological interactions are becoming increasingly mismatched in time, with negative consequences for ecological function. 2. Significant spatial heterogeneity (inter-sit...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:50|dedup_wf_001::ebbbd2ab8af8399be59c4c566e93ec65 2023-05-15T18:03:50+02:00 Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 Youngflesh, Casey Jenouvrier, Stephanie Hinke, Jefferson T. DuBois, Lauren St. Leger, Judy Trivelpiece, Wayne Z. Trivelpiece, Susan G. Lynch, Heather J. 2018-01-01 https://doi.org/10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 undefined unknown Dryad https://dx.doi.org/10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.23sv1 lic_creative-commons 10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 oai:services.nod.dans.knaw.nl:Products/dans:oai:easy.dans.knaw.nl:easy-dataset:100001 oai:easy.dans.knaw.nl:easy-dataset:100001 10|openaire____::9e3be59865b2c1c335d32dae2fe7b254 re3data_____::r3d100000044 10|re3data_____::94816e6421eeb072e7742ce6a9decc5f 10|eurocrisdris::fe4903425d9040f680d8610d9079ea14 10|re3data_____::84e123776089ce3c7a33db98d9cd15a8 (:tba) Bayesian hierarchical model phenology coloniality stochasticity synchrony Pygoscelis adeliae Adélie penguin Phenological mismatch climate change Life sciences medicine and health care envir geo Dataset https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_ddb1/ 2018 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.23sv1 2023-01-22T16:51:21Z 1. Phenological changes have been observed in a variety of systems over the past century. There is concern that, as a consequence, ecological interactions are becoming increasingly mismatched in time, with negative consequences for ecological function. 2. Significant spatial heterogeneity (inter-site) and temporal variability (inter-annual) can make it difficult to separate intrinsic, extrinsic, and stochastic drivers of phenological variability. The goal of this study was to understand the timing and variability of breeding phenology of Adélie penguins under fixed environmental conditions, and to use those data to identify a ‘null model’ appropriate for disentangling the sources of variation in wild populations. 3. Data on clutch initiation were collected from both wild and captive populations of Adélie penguins. Clutch initiation in the captive population was modeled as a function of year, individual, and age to better understand phenological patterns observed in the wild population. 4. Captive populations displayed as much inter-annual variability in breeding phenology as wild populations, suggesting that variability in breeding phenology is the norm and thus may be an unreliable indicator of environmental forcing. The distribution of clutch initiation dates was found to be moderately asymmetric (right skewed) both in the wild and in captivity, consistent with the pattern expected under social facilitation. 5. The role of stochasticity in phenological processes has heretofore been largely ignored. However, these results suggest that inter-annual variability in breeding phenology can arise independent of any environmental or demographic drivers and that synchronous breeding can enhance inherent stochasticity. This complicates efforts to relate phenological variation to environmental variability in the wild. Accordingly, we must be careful to consider random forcing in phenological processes, lest we fit models to data dominated by random noise. This is particularly true for colonial species where breeding ... Dataset Pygoscelis adeliae Unknown |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
unknown |
topic |
(:tba) Bayesian hierarchical model phenology coloniality stochasticity synchrony Pygoscelis adeliae Adélie penguin Phenological mismatch climate change Life sciences medicine and health care envir geo |
spellingShingle |
(:tba) Bayesian hierarchical model phenology coloniality stochasticity synchrony Pygoscelis adeliae Adélie penguin Phenological mismatch climate change Life sciences medicine and health care envir geo Youngflesh, Casey Jenouvrier, Stephanie Hinke, Jefferson T. DuBois, Lauren St. Leger, Judy Trivelpiece, Wayne Z. Trivelpiece, Susan G. Lynch, Heather J. Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 |
topic_facet |
(:tba) Bayesian hierarchical model phenology coloniality stochasticity synchrony Pygoscelis adeliae Adélie penguin Phenological mismatch climate change Life sciences medicine and health care envir geo |
description |
1. Phenological changes have been observed in a variety of systems over the past century. There is concern that, as a consequence, ecological interactions are becoming increasingly mismatched in time, with negative consequences for ecological function. 2. Significant spatial heterogeneity (inter-site) and temporal variability (inter-annual) can make it difficult to separate intrinsic, extrinsic, and stochastic drivers of phenological variability. The goal of this study was to understand the timing and variability of breeding phenology of Adélie penguins under fixed environmental conditions, and to use those data to identify a ‘null model’ appropriate for disentangling the sources of variation in wild populations. 3. Data on clutch initiation were collected from both wild and captive populations of Adélie penguins. Clutch initiation in the captive population was modeled as a function of year, individual, and age to better understand phenological patterns observed in the wild population. 4. Captive populations displayed as much inter-annual variability in breeding phenology as wild populations, suggesting that variability in breeding phenology is the norm and thus may be an unreliable indicator of environmental forcing. The distribution of clutch initiation dates was found to be moderately asymmetric (right skewed) both in the wild and in captivity, consistent with the pattern expected under social facilitation. 5. The role of stochasticity in phenological processes has heretofore been largely ignored. However, these results suggest that inter-annual variability in breeding phenology can arise independent of any environmental or demographic drivers and that synchronous breeding can enhance inherent stochasticity. This complicates efforts to relate phenological variation to environmental variability in the wild. Accordingly, we must be careful to consider random forcing in phenological processes, lest we fit models to data dominated by random noise. This is particularly true for colonial species where breeding ... |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Youngflesh, Casey Jenouvrier, Stephanie Hinke, Jefferson T. DuBois, Lauren St. Leger, Judy Trivelpiece, Wayne Z. Trivelpiece, Susan G. Lynch, Heather J. |
author_facet |
Youngflesh, Casey Jenouvrier, Stephanie Hinke, Jefferson T. DuBois, Lauren St. Leger, Judy Trivelpiece, Wayne Z. Trivelpiece, Susan G. Lynch, Heather J. |
author_sort |
Youngflesh, Casey |
title |
Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 |
title_short |
Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 |
title_full |
Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 |
title_fullStr |
Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 |
title_sort |
dryad item 10.5061/dryad.23sv1 |
publisher |
Dryad |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 |
genre |
Pygoscelis adeliae |
genre_facet |
Pygoscelis adeliae |
op_source |
10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 oai:services.nod.dans.knaw.nl:Products/dans:oai:easy.dans.knaw.nl:easy-dataset:100001 oai:easy.dans.knaw.nl:easy-dataset:100001 10|openaire____::9e3be59865b2c1c335d32dae2fe7b254 re3data_____::r3d100000044 10|re3data_____::94816e6421eeb072e7742ce6a9decc5f 10|eurocrisdris::fe4903425d9040f680d8610d9079ea14 10|re3data_____::84e123776089ce3c7a33db98d9cd15a8 |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.23sv1 |
op_rights |
lic_creative-commons |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5061/DRYAD.23SV1 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.23sv1 |
_version_ |
1766174855293566976 |